000 AGXX40 KNHC 250731 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 324 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Harvey was upgraded to hurricane status at 24/1800 UTC. At 25/0600 UTC, It is near 25.6N 95.1W, moving toward the NW, or 315 degrees, at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 90 kt with higher gusts. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast later today and make landfall tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to stall near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend. Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast. A recent scatterometer pass over Harvey indicates that wind of 20-33 kt extends within 180 nm N semicircle, 210 nm SE quadrant, and 120 nm SW quadrant of the center. See hurricanes.gov for the latest information on Harvey. Farther east, a trough of low pressure persists over the eastern Gulf with a weak 1010 mb low pressure near 27N83W. This system will move across Florida today, and will have minimal impact on winds and seas across the Gulf waters. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms associated with this low is over the southeast Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Recent scatterometer data along with ship and buoy data indicate moderate to fresh winds over the central Caribbean, gentle to moderate over the eastern Caribbean, and light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central Caribbean, 2-4 ft over the eastern Caribbean, 2-3 ft over the western Caribbean. High pressure building north of the area will tighten the pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian/Panamanian low. As a result, expect fresh to locally strong winds off the coast of northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia the next several days with building seas to 8- 9 ft by early Saturday morning. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras this evening and tonight with seas building to 8 ft. Similar marine conditions are also expected across the Gulf of Honduras Saturday evening and night. Little change is expected elsewhere through the next several days. In the Tropical N Atlantic waters expect gentle to moderate trades and seas in the 4-6 ft range through the forecast period. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... As previously mentioned, a weak low pressure is forecast to move across Florida today, entering the SW N Atlantic waters on Saturday. Southerly winds will increase to 20-25 KT across forecast zone AMZ111 tonight through Sunday, with seas building to 5-6 ft. These marine conditions could also impact forecast zone AMZ113 on Monday. Although strong upper-level winds could limit tropical cyclone formation, some subtropical development is possible over the weekend or early next week while the system moves northeastward over the western Atlantic before it merges with a front. The remainder of the area will be under the influence of the subtropical ridge. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are expected across the waters S of 22N, and just north of Hispaniola, including also the approaches to the Windward Passage each night from Saturday through Monday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Hurricane Warning early today into tonight. Tropical Storm Warning Sat. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Tropical Storm Warning early today. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Hurricane Warning early today into today. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Tropical Storm Warning early today. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center. AGXX40 KNHC 121045 CCA MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 545 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO...updated MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. High pressure prevails over the forecast waters. Latest buoy and platform observations along with Ascat data from last night show mainly gentle to moderate return flow across the waters. In the western portion, return flow is reaching the fresh category at times. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range, except for lower seas of 2-3 ft in the northeast portion and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The high pressure ridge will shift southward through Monday allowing for a fairly weak cold front to drop southward over the northern waters. Northerly flow will be in the moderate range over those waters through Monday evening before diminishing to mostly a gentle northeast flow. The ridge will then retreat eastward as low pressure with an associated cold front moves across eastern Texas on Tuesday. The cold front will move over the northwest waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wednesday evening, and move southeast of the area on Thursday. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front, with near gale winds over the far southwest Gulf Wednesday. These winds will quickly diminish on Thursday as high pressure settles in over the area. Seas will subside throughout the basin on Thursday. Areas of dense fog observed last night across portions of the northwest gulf appear to have fractured into patches of dense fog. Latest fog guidance indicates that the fog should dissipate for the most part around or shortly after 15Z this morning. The fog may develop again tonight, and on Monday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. High pressure is centered north of the area. Latest satellite derived winds...buoy and ship observations reveal strong to near gale winds over the south central Caribbean, with the exception of a small area of minimal gale force northeast to east winds near the coast of Colombia. The observations show fresh to strong winds over the north central Caribbean, fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over the western Caribbean as well as over the tropical north Atlantic waters. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the south central Caribbean, except for higher seas of 10-14 ft in the area of gale force winds. Seas are 6-8 ft in the north central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 5-6 ft in the western Caribbean, and 6-8 ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters south of 15N due to decaying NE to E swell there. A newly arrived set of NW swell has infiltrated the northern portion of the tropical north Atlantic bringing seas of 8-12 ft there, with the highest of the seas presently concentrated in the northwest part of zone AMZ127. This set of NW swell is indicated by wave model guidance to propagate southeastward through the remainder of the tropical north Atlantic into Monday while decaying. Seas will respond by lowering to 7-9 ft early on Monday, to 6-8 ft Monday afternoon, and to 5-7 ft Tuesday. Yet another set of NW swell is expected to impact the northern portion of tropical north Atlantic on Wednesday building seas to the range of 8-11 ft there. This set of swell, like the previous one, will also affect the remainder of the tropical north Atlantic zones on Thursday, but will be losing energy with seas lowering to 7-9 ft at that time. High pressure north of the area will weaken through Tuesday as it slides eastward. This will decrease winds and seas over the Caribbean waters, with winds and seas expected to fall below advisory criteria by late Tuesday. The gale conditions presently occurring near the coast of Colombia are forecast to diminish at or just past 12Z this morning. These winds will pulse back up to gale force one more time in the same geographic location tonight, but within a smaller coverage area. The winds then diminish early Monday morning. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. High pressure prevails over the forecast area. A dissipating stationary front prevails over the southeast waters. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict fresh to strong northeast winds over the southern waters and light to gentle winds over the northern waters. The fresh to strong northeast winds were confirmed by the 0134Z Ascat pass from last night as well. Seas are in the 8-11 ft south of 26N and east of the Bahamas, and 6-9 ft elsewhere to the east and northeast of the Bahamas. Seas elsewhere are in the 4-6 ft range, except for lower seas of 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas. The front will lose its identity today possibly transitioning to a shear line feature. Global models have been consistently suggesting that a series of cold fronts will move across the northern waters during the forecast period attendant by strong winds east and west of them. In addition, the fronts will be followed by sets of long period NW to N swell that will affect the waters east of the Bahamas during the period. The swell could potentially create hazardous marine conditions for vessels navigating those waters. Max seas are expected to peak to around 19 ft in the far northeast portion of the area on Tuesday before subsiding to 10 ft on Wednesday. Seas will peak to around 14 ft in zone AMZ113 on Thursday in the next round of long period NW to N swell. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning through 12Z this morning. Gale Warning tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.