000 AGXX40 KNHC 220747 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 347 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The weak pressure pattern responsible for light winds and limited wave heights that has been in place over the past few days across the Gulf is in transition, ahead of a resurgent remnant low of Harvey now moving through the Yucatan peninsula on its way to the Bay of Campeche. Conditions are favorable for further development of the low pressure, and there is a high chance it will re- develop a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days as it enters the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Global models are also converging on a consensus track taking the possible tropical cyclone across the western Gulf and making landfall on either the northern coast of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas or in southern Texas later in the week. Please see hurricanes.gov for information on the development of the remnants of Harvey. In addition, weak low pressure over the northern Bahamas is expected to move across the Florida peninsula through mid week, then stall over the southeast Gulf Thu, before moving northeast and across Florida again toward the Atlantic as high pressure builds over the central Gulf in the wake of the possible tropical cyclone moving through the western Gulf. This low pressure will have minimal impact on winds and seas, but could serve as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active over the northwest Caribbean, north of 18N, related to convergent low level flow into what could be a re-developing remnant low of Harvey, now moving toward the Belize coast and expected to continue to move westward into the southwest Gulf. A tropical wave south of the Mona Passage will move across the central Caribbean through mid week, and the western Caribbean later in the week. Strong trade winds will pulse off the coasts of northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela in the wake of the tropical wave. Elsewhere, a trough will move north of the region from the Leeward Islands to the Windward Passage Wed and Thu. This will keep high pressure relatively weak north of the area resulting in modest trade wind flow elsewhere through the next several days. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A trough reaching from the northern Bahamas to central Cuba will move westward across the Florida peninsula through mid week, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms over mainly the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. High pressure is building northeast of the Bahamas in the wake of the trough. This will support a pulse of strong coastal winds off northern Hispaniola later today. Another trough well to the east of the area in the central Atlantic will pass 65W in the Atlantic waters south of 22N by mid week, reaching the Windward Passage by Thu. This feature may become absorbed by a another trough expected to develop off the east central Florida coast later in the week, related to the trough currently in the Bahamas. Looking ahead, some model guidance indicates this may form into low pressure off northeast Florida by Sat, but some uncertainty remains. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.