000 AGXX40 KNHC 031835 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Visible satellite imagery from this morning and early this afternoon shows a low pressure feature near 20N94W with pressure of 1007 mb. A trough extends from the low northwest to 23N95W to near 27N96W. Another trough extends from the NE Texas coast south to near 27N96W. In general, broad low pressure covers the western Gulf, while high pressure is present over the northeast and central waters. The Yucatan Peninsula thermal trough moved off the coast this morning, and has merged with the broad trough. The pressure gradient between the low pressure and the high pressure to its northeast is allowing for strong southeast to south winds from 22N to 26N between 89W and 92W, with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, a rather relax pressure gradient is maintaining mainly gentle to moderate winds. The low will slowly move in a north-northeast direction through early Sunday, then weaken through early Monday as it moves northward and eventually becomes absorbed into a weak cold front that moves across the NW and north-central waters on Wednesday. The strong southeast to south winds will become east to southeast on Sunday, then diminish to moderate to fresh winds on Monday. The front will reach the southeast and south-central waters Thursday as weak high pressure builds in over the area in its wake. Light to moderate northerly winds are forecast behind the front with rather low seas. The large area of deep atmospheric moisture observed the last couple of days over much of the western and central portions of the Gulf has gradually shrunk in size from west to east, however, clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection have developed over the eastern portion of the SW Gulf to the east of the aforementioned low and trough. Moisture streaming northeast and eastward from this convective activity is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the central Gulf waters and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern half of the Gulf. A mid to upper level trough over the central United States will dig southeastward through early next week. The eastern side of the upper trough will line up over the deep moisture plume from early through the middle of next week as impulses of energy move from southwest to northeast over the region. This will result in numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms especially from Tuesday through Thursday over the eastern half of the Gulf. Heavy rainfall will be likely over portions of southeast Mexico, Florida, and the eastern Gulf during that time frame. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pressure over the Atlantic will support fresh to strong easterly winds over the south central Caribbean the next several days, with the strongest winds occurring at night south of about 15N/16N between 70W and 77W. Strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras last night have diminished to fresh winds. These winds will develop again tonight. Light winds can be expected south of 10N over the southwest Caribbean through the upcoming week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh east to southeast trades will prevail. A topical wave over the eastern Caribbean with axis near 67W is moving westward near 15 kt. The combination of a sharp upper trough over its vicinity is helping to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along and east of the wave to over much of the Lesser Antilles and tropical N Atlantic waters between the Lesser Antilles and 59W. The wave will move across the remainder of the eastern Caribbean tonight into early Sunday, then across the central Caribbean during the remainder of Sunday and through Monday. It will reach the western Caribbean Monday night through Wednesday and move west of the forecast waters to across central America Thursday. Another tropical wave over the central Atlantic currently along 47W south of 13N is expected to reach the eastern portion of the tropical N Atlantic forecast waters late Sunday night or early Monday then move across those rest of the tropical N Atlantic through Monday night and enter the eastern Caribbean Tuesday. The wave will move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean Sea through Thursday and the move into the eastern half of the central Caribbean Thursday. Model guidance presently suggest that an upper level pattern similar to the present one will set up over the eastern Caribbean in the long term. If this verifies, then this upcoming tropical wave could be followed by a large coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms as it tracks across the forecast waters. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A deep plume of moisture extends from the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, the northern Bahamas, and the northern portion of the basin. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms embedded in this moisture plume will persist through the remainder of the weekend. A mid to upper level trough will dig southeastward over the gulf of Mexico early next week, and remain there through the middle of the week. This will help to amplify the moisture plume over the region, and with added mid to upper level energy, will support numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly over the northwest waters. The trough will begin to shift eastward Wednesday night which will shift the focus of shower and thunderstorm activity southeastward to the central Bahamas late this week. A weak ridge axis extends across the waters along about 27N supporting gentle winds over the northern waters and moderate to fresh easterly winds over the southern waters. The ridge axis will begin to retreat eastward through Monday as low pressure moves over the eastern United states. This will result in the development of moderate to fresh southwesterly flow developing north of 25N and west of 70W Sunday through Monday. Once the mid to upper level trough sets up west of the area and energy impulses propagate across the northern waters Monday night through Wednesday, then tapering off on Thursday, the winds will vary depending on where the surface reflections of these energy impulses will be over the northern waters. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.