000 AGXX40 KNHC 230748 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 348 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary front extends along the NW Gulf Coast from Brownsville Texas to near Lake Charles Louisiana. Low pressure along the front near Baton Rouge, Louisiana is serving as a focus for thunderstorms over the Gulf S of Louisiana to 27N. The thunderstorms will shift east as the low tracks NE. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to decrease this morning as the front weakens. Weak high pressure ridging WSW over the Gulf from the Atlc will generate moderate winds and generally fair weather Today. A thermal trough will move W from the Yucatan Peninsula over the eastern Bay of Campeche this morning. This trough will support strong easterly winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche until just before sunrise Today. A late season cold front will reach the NW Gulf early Wednesday morning, crossing the Gulf Wednesday through Thursday, before stalling across the Florida Straits to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula to the Southern Bay of Campeche late Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead of this front N of 22N. S of 22N the front will weaken rapidly and dissipate by Friday morning, and N of 22N the front will dissipate by late Friday. Fresh to strong winds are expected to develop east of the front over the NE Gulf Wednesday night. Weak high pressure will then build across the eastern Gulf late this week. Yet another cold front moving into Texas will set up a return flow scenario over the W Gulf by early next week. SE to S winds over the Gulf W of 90W could become fresh to locally strong on Monday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The eastern Pacific monsoon trough will continue to extend across central America to reach the far SW Caribbean. The trough will support showers and thunderstorms the next few days. A westward moving tropical wave will cross the central Caribbean Tuesday, and the western Caribbean Wednesday and Thursday. This feature does not have much associated convection, but will help augment trade-wind flow as it moves W. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades near the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras early this morning. The high will slide east and strengthen through the middle of the week as pressures fall in the vicinity of the Monsoon Trough, causing the areal coverage of the stronger winds to expand northward over the central Caribbean Wednesday through Friday. Across the tropical Atlantic waters, trade winds have slackened to moderate speeds. This has allowed seas in this area to subside below 8 ft. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pressure centered NE of the Bahamas near 30N64W will slide east today and become centered over the central Atlantic as it merges with a broader area of high pressure currently moving SE away from New England. A cold front will then approach the area from the west on Wednesday. This transition will result in a gradual increase in southerly winds E of Florida during the next two days. Winds will reach 20 to 30 kt by Wednesday afternoon as seas build to 11 ft over the waters east of north Florida. The cold front will reach the waters east of northern Florida on Thursday, then extend from 31N71W to south Florida by Friday morning. The front will then begin to weaken over the western Atlantic by Saturday. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast along and just east of the front Wednesday night through Thursday night. Weak high pres will build E behind the front and be centered just N the Northern Bahamas near 29N on Sunday. Trade winds will be moderate S of 22N. The high will shift E Mon and Mon night, but ridging remaining in place near 29N will maintain a similar wind regime during that time frame. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.