000 AGXX40 KNHC 170635 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 235 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends along the U.S. Gulf coast states anchored by a surface high in the Atlantic. Elongated surface troughing is W of the basin from central Texas through central Mexico resulting in a locally tight pressure gradient in the NW Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE return flow prevails, except in the NW Gulf where recent scatterometer passes show fresh to strong SE flow. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf, 5 to 8 ft in the NW Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft near the Straits of Florida. The locally tight pressure gradient in the NW Gulf will relax through the morning allowing for winds to diminish below the strong level. Winds will pulse locally to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan peninsula each evening with the typical thermal trough developing each afternoon just inland. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong through the Straits of Florida during the next couple of evenings. Otherwise, Ridging will hold just N of the area through the next several days with moderate to fresh E to SE prevailing for the foreseeable future. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A surface trough continues to linger in the western Caribbean extending from near 20N83W to 12N82W. A deep mid to upper-level trough extends from S Florida to across western Cuba to eastern Honduras. Very active convection continues to the E of the troughing, with persistent and dangerous heavy rainfall continuing across Hispaniola. Meanwhile the northern extent of a tropical wave is moving across Colombia and the S central Caribbean waters. Fresh to strong E to SE flow can be found E of the wave axis, spreading to the NW between Cuba and Jamaica across the approach to the Windward Passage. Light to gentle flow prevails to the W of the wave axis, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the central Caribbean where the stronger winds are, 1 to 3 ft W of the wave axis, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. The surface trough is forecast to linger across the same general area through the majority of the week before moving W to NW Friday through early Saturday, with troughing returning again along 82W, as additional tropical waves move through the basin, Sunday into early next week. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will persist in the central Caribbean with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except light to gentle winds SW of any troughing/tropical waves. In the Tropical N Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas will prevail through the next several days. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... An old frontal boundary in the form a trough extends along 26N while 1024 mb high pressure is just N of the basin near 32N70W. Mainly moderate E to SE flow prevails across the waters, except locally fresh to strong S of 22N W of 70W. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft E of the Bahamas, except 5 to 7 ft in zone AMZ127, and 2 to 4 ft W of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue S of the trough between 65W and 75W with upper level diffluence across this area around an upper high S of the basin, and with deep upper level troughing across the NW portion of the basin. The surface troughing will linger along 26N through tonight before dissipating while another surface trough extending across the central Bahamas from the NW Caribbean begins to propagate to the NW. The high N of the area will shift to the E through the end of the week. Fresh to locally strong E to SE flow will prevail from across the Bahamas to S Florida through Friday, diminishing slightly once the troughing shifts W. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE flow will prevail through the next several days. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.