000 AGXX40 KNHC 111846 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 246 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high centered over the NE Gulf is maintaining light to moderate E to SE winds over the Gulf. A frontal boundary is situated to the NW of the Gulf over Texas. A thermal trough is expected to develop over the Yucatan for one more night tonight and generate moderate to strong winds S of 22.5N between 88W and 90.5W. After tonight the front over Texas will be weakening the ridge to the N which will reduce the pressure gradient in this area. The front over Texas will be moving southeastward over the Northern Gulf Friday through Sunday. The southern portion of the front will stall, then weaken over the Southern Gulf. High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of the front on Sunday and Monday, then shift eastward into the Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday and set up return flow over the Western Gulf. The return flow could become Strong by Thursday ahead of yet another frontal boundary pushing into the Southern Plains. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pressure centered just east of the Bahamas is maintaining moderate E to NE trades over the Caribbean W of 67W. A surface trough extending SW over the Caribbean is generating showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The trough supports moderate SE winds over the Southeastern Caribbean as well. A tropical wave is approaching the Southern Windward Islands from the vicinity of 56W. The surface trough over the NE Caribbean will be weakening during the next couple of days as the upper-level trough supporting it lifts out to the NE. The tropical wave is enhancing the pressure gradient over the Tropical Atlantic to the E of the Windward islands. As the wave shifts W...the gradient over the Tropical N Atlantic will lessen and allow winds and seas to subside. However, long period N to NE swell will continue to maintain combined seas close to 8 ft in this area through the end of this week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A frontal boundary is stalling well to the E of the Bahamas from 31N55W to 25N63W. This boundary is expected to dissipate during the next day or so. Another frontal boundary is lurking just to the N of this area. Low pressure developing over the Carolinas will drag the boundary SE as a cold front across the northern waters. Strong SW winds can be expected N of 27N ahead of the front as it progresses eastward on Friday and Saturday. NW swell generated on the N side of the front will cause combined seas to build to 12 feet along 31N as the front heads E. Another boundary will be heading eastward across the northern waters on Monday and Tuesday, but it is expected to be weaker and only produce marginal advisory conditions in the vicinity of 31N. Otherwise, weak high pressure centered E of the Bahamas will generally maintain light to moderate SE winds over the Bahamas and gentle E to SE winds over the waters S of 23N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.