000 AGXX40 KNHC 101818 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 218 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1019 mb located over the NE Gulf remains the main weather feature controlling the weather regime across the Gulf waters. The latest scatterometer passes along with current observations from buoys and oil platforms reveal mostly moderate anticyclonic flow over Gulf, with the exception over the NE Gulf where light to gentle winds are noted around the immediate high center, and over the NW Gulf where moderate to fresh winds are seen. Latest buoy and altimeter data show relatively low seas in the range of 1 to 3 ft over the eastern half of the Gulf waters, and 3 to 5 ft seas over the western half of the area with the exception of 5 to 6 ft over the NW Gulf where moderate to fresh winds are blowing, and over the eastern part of the Bay of Campeche due to the presence of fresh to strong winds associated with a thermal trough. This feature will move offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and across the SW Gulf at night and into the morning hours through Friday. A surge of fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas in the 5 to 6 ft range will accompany this trough. The high pressure over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through Thursday, supporting moderate to fresh southeast winds over the western Gulf. The high pressure will then move inland over Florida toward the NW Bahamas on Friday. This system will extends a ridge across the Gulf region. Also on Friday, a weak cold front will move offshore the Texas coast, reaching a position from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf on Saturday, then weaken over the SE Gulf on Sunday. Models indicate that weak high pressure will build in behind the front, with gentle to moderate northerly winds expected over the western half of the Gulf by late on Saturday, and gentle to moderate south to southwest winds elsewhere. Seas will be rather low at that time, with wave guidance suggesting 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean per latest scatterometer data and ship and buoy observations. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are noted in the lee of eastern Cuba and in the Windward Passage as well as just south of Cabo Beata, the southernmost point of the island of Hispaniola. Both recent altimeter data and current buoy observations report seas in the 3 to 5 ft across most of the basin. High pressure north of area and low pressure near the coast of Colombia associated with the monsoon trough will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the central and eastern Caribbean, and Tropical N Atlantic forecast waters through the forecast period. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected through the Windward Passage beginning this evening and into late tonight before diminishing to the 20 kt or less near daybreak on Thursday. Additional pulses of NE swell will reach the northern Tropical N Atlantic waters tonight, with resultant combined wave heights maxing out to 7-8 ft. This set of swell will continue to propagate through the southern waters on Thursday. A tropical wave, currently located along 52W south of 12N will pass across the southern portions of the Tropical N Atlantic waters Thursday and Thursday night followed east to southeast winds of 20 to 25 kt and seas of 8 to 9 ft. The wave is expected to be along 61W south of 15N on Friday morning, then will weaken as it moves across the eastern Caribbean. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A 1020 mb high pressure located near 28N76W dominates the SW N Atlantic waters while a surface trough is over the SE waters and Puerto Rico. Current buoy and ship observations show gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow around the high center, with the exception of moderate winds to the far southern waters west of 70W...including the approaches to the Windward passage. Winds are also beginning to increase near 31N and E of 73W ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. The buoys along with recent altimeter passes reveal seas in the range of 3 to 5 ft northeast and east of the Bahamas, and lower seas of 1 to 2 ft west of the Bahamas as well as north of the Bahamas west of 78W. The surface trough will continue to shift eastward reaching the Virgin Islands on Thursday, and the northern Leeward Islands by Friday with no significant impacts on winds and seas. A series of of cold fronts are expected to quickly brush the far northern waters during the next few days. The first one will pass through tonight into Thursday, the second one on Friday and the third one appears to be the strongest according to the latest model runs. This one will move over the far northwest waters on Saturday night into Sunday, and over the north-central and NE waters on Sunday night. This front will be preceded by fresh to strong southwest winds and seas building to the range of 8 to 10 ft. Mainly fresh northwest winds will follow in behind the front, with seas of around 6 to 8 ft. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.