000 AGXX40 KNHC 260629 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 229 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging remains in place from the western Atlantic across the south Florida, then extending northwest to the coast of Texas. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are noted over the northwest Gulf currently, between the ridge and a trough over west Texas and northeast Mexico. Seas range from 1 to 2 ft over the northeast Gulf, 4 to 6 ft over the far northwest Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. The southerly return flow over the northeast Gulf will increase later this morning with seas building to 8 ft off Texas ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move off the coast of Texas late today, followed by strong northerly flow into the northwest Gulf. The front will slowly move eastward, and weaken as it reaches from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the mouth of the Rio Grande by early Thursday. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf by late Thu as the front dissipates. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail through Thursday night, except for a pulse of stronger winds off northwest Yucatan. The southerly flow increases across much of the central and western Gulf late Friday through Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. This second, stronger front will move off the Texas coast early Sunday followed by fresh to strong northwest flow. The operational GFS is showing winds to minimal gale force off Tampico and Veracruz Sunday, but this seems to be an outlier. Other global and ensemble models are trending weaker and will hold off on increasing winds at this time. The front will weaken through late Sunday night as it reaches from the western Florida Panhandle to the southwest Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A relatively weak pressure pattern continues across the basin as a series of cold front and troughs have eroded the subtropical ridging north of the region. moderate to fresh trade winds persist over the tropical north Atlantic waters west of 55W south of high pressure over the north central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate east to southeast flow is noted over the central and western Caribbean. Ridging is becoming re-established however, and localized fresh to strong winds will pulse around the Gulf of Honduras and off Colombia during overnight hours tonight and Thursday night. These pulses will grow in areal extent by Friday night as the gradient tightens between strong ridging over the western Atlantic and troughing approaching from the west. By late Saturday, the building ridge to the north will support strong winds in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola near Cabo Beata as well, with fresh trade winds and building seas across the remainder of the region. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A dissipating cold front reaches from 31N71W toward the central Bahamas will become diffuse through the remainder of tonight. Sharp ridging reaching across the southern Bahamas toward the Straights of Florida will shift northward to 27N/28N through Thursday, maintaining gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas through Friday, with moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N Saturday into Sunday. Southerly return flow will increase off northeast Florida by late Sunday ahead of a cold front approaching the area through the Gulf of Mexico. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.