000 AGXX40 KNHC 041846 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 246 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Current buoy observations and recent scatterometer data indicate generally moderate southerly flow across the Gulf, except for light to moderate northeast flow over the far northeast waters. The cold front that earlier moved over the northeast Gulf has slowed down, and presently extends from northeast Florida to 28N86W where it transitions to a warm front southwest to just east of southern Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, in training fashion, are observed to the east of the cold front. The high pressure that recently was over the eastern Gulf has shifted eastward into the western Atlantic as deep upper troughing approaching West Texas progresses eastward. The warm front will lift north of the area tonight as a strong cold front advances through eastern Texas. The cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas coast late tonight into early Wednesday. The front will quickly move across the northwest and central waters through Wednesday evening, and reach from near Tampa Florida to near 24N88W, and to the eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche early on Thursday. It will then move across the rest of the eastern Gulf waters through Thursday night. Latest model runs still suggest that the front will be followed by strong northerly winds and seas in a building trend. Northwest to north near gale winds are forecast to near the coast of Veracruz Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday, with winds there then diminishing to strong Thursday and to fresh category Thursday night. Winds and seas over the remainder of the basin continue to decrease through Saturday as high pressure settles in over the area. The high center will shift from the northwest Gulf to the northeast gulf by late Sunday allowing for fresh to strong return southerly flow to set up over the far western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pressure over the central subtropical Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trades over most of the Caribbean except fresh to strong trades over the Gulf of Honduras through Wednesday night, and mainly strong trades in the central Caribbean south about 16N, with the exception of winds to near gale force near the coast of Colombia. Seas will peak near 10-13 ft NW of the Colombia coast at night, when the strongest winds are forecast to occur. A weakening cold front will move over the far northwest Caribbean Thursday evening. The front will eventually stall and dissipate from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by late Friday night into early Saturday. Large northerly swell to 8 ft east of the Windward Islands will decay below 8 ft through tonight. Another set of northerly swell to 8 ft will reach the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands to 55W Wednesday night through Thursday night. The swell will gradually decay on Friday, with seas lowering to less than 8 ft Friday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Clusters of showers and thunderstorms remain active over the Gulf Stream off northeast Florida early this afternoon, supported in part by a vigorous short wave trough in the mid levels of the atmosphere. The trough is forecast to weaken during the afternoon allowing for this activity to weaken and and decrease in coverage. A cold front just northwest of the area will stall during the afternoon, and lift back north as a warm front tonight and Wednesday. A high pressure ridge extending from a high center analyzed just to the southeast of Bermuda, and stretching to the northwest Bahamas will shift eastward tonight through Wednesday night in response to a strong cold moves across the southeastern U.S. Models show that this cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by early on Thursday, reach from near 31N74W to northwest Cuba by Thursday evening, from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage Friday evening into Saturday. The front is forecast to reach a position from near 31N60W to central Hispaniola Saturday night into Sunday. Strong winds to near gale force will precede and follow this front Thursday into Friday. There is some possibility that southerly winds may briefly reach gale force over the northwest waters on Thursday. Winds will then diminish Saturday through Sunday as weak high pressure migrates from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic in the wake of the front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.