000 AGXX40 KNHC 220509 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 109 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface high analyzed at 27N87W is forecast meander over the n- central and ne gulf waters today, then shift n of the area on Thu. A thermal trough will develop late each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula, and shift w across the waters generally to s of 22N between 90W and 93W during the overnight hours, and gradually lose identity along about 94W late each morning. Expect a ne-e-se 20-25 kt wind shift along the trough axis, with seas building briefly to 7 ft tonight. Model guidance continues to suggest a more significant wind event along this trough that will extend n to about 23.5N92W on Thu night as fresh to strong easterly return flow develops across the entire gulf beginning Thu night, and continues through sunrise Sat before diminishing. A moderate to locally fresh easterly breeze forecast across the southern waters on Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh ne winds to the lee of Cuba will diminish a moderate breeze today, and then redevelop again tonight with the strong ne pulses then continuing through Thu. A strong ne breeze will develop in the Windward Passage on Thu evening as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Expect strong ne flow across the n-central and the nw Caribbean on Fri and Sat. The pressure gradient should begin to relax on Sat afternoon, but expect one more strong ne pulse to the lee of Cuba on Sat night. Large n swell will reach the n Caribbean Passages on Fri night, and continue through late Sun night before subsiding. Strong ne nocturnal winds expected within 90 nm of the nw coast of Colombia tonight and on Thu night. Moderate trades expected elsewhere through Wed. Fresh trades forecast across the tropical waters e of the Leewards tonight with seas building to 8 ft through Thu morning. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A frontal trough extending sw across the tropical waters to the n of the Virgin Islands has begun drifting nw. A cold front will move off the Fl coast this morning and reach from Bermuda to Central Florida tonight, then lose identity along 25N on Thu. Strong to near gale force post-frontal ne winds will spread se across the entire area with 9 to 14 ft seas propagating s across the waters e of the Bahamas on Fri. Although these large seas will subside from the n beginning on Fri night, still expect strong e winds, and 8 to 13 ft seas to the s of 28N on Sat evening, and strong e winds and 8 to 10 ft seas e of the Bahamas on Sun evening. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.