000 AGXX40 KNHC 170502 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A ridge extends sw to Veracruz Mexico from a surface high meandering over the far ne waters. Fresh to locally strong ne winds are expected today and tonight across the se gulf waters especially within 60 nm of the nw coast of Cuba. The high center will shift w to near 28N92W on Sat night with a ridge extending se across the Fl Straits. The high center will then shift back e along 28N to near 28N87W on Tue, with the dominate ridge axis then extending sw to near Veracruz Mexico. A thermal trough will develop late each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula, and shift w across the waters s of 22N between 90W and 93W during the overnight hours, and gradually lose identity along about 94W late each morning. Expect a ne-e-se 20-25 kt wind shift along the trough with seas building to 7 ft. Otherwise, moderate anticyclonic flow forecast across the gulf through Tue evening, with fresh se return flow developing across the nw waters late Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A stationary front extending sw from the Windward Passage to border of Nicaragua and Honduras will gradually dissipate through Sat, while accompanied by scattered RW and isolated TS. Fresh to strong ne flow is forecast to the w of the decaying front through late Sat morning, then fresh ne winds expected through Mon night, and then moderate ne flow on Tue. Strong to near gale force trades forecast within 150 nm of the nw coast of Colombia today increasing to minimal gale force tonight through sunrise on Sat. The pressure gradient will relax on Sun with strong ne winds forecast only within about 60 nm of the coast on Sun night, and fresh nocturnal winds expected on Mon and Tue nights. Moderate to fresh trades forecast elsewhere through Sat morning, then mostly moderate trades expected through Tue. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A cold front extends from 31N58W to 24N67W where it becomes stationary to the Windward Passage. Strong ne winds continue within 240 nm w of the stationary front. The cold front segment will continue e to a position from 29N55W to 25N61W tonight, while the stationary segment begins to weaken and drift nw with fresh ne winds within 180 nm w of the front. Expect a frontal trough from 28N55W to 26N65W to 22N77W on Sun. By then a strong cold will extend from 31N75W to central Florida accompanied by a strong sw-w-nw wind shift, and 8-12 ft seas, across the waters to the n of 28N. This second cold front will merge with the remnants of the initial front along a position from Bermuda to the Fl Straits late Sun. Expect a frontal trough from 26N55W to e Cuba early Tue, with the remnants beginning to drift w on Tue night. Expect seas of 8 ft or greater to dip as far s as 25N across the waters e of the Bahamas in the wake of the front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.