000 AGXX40 KNHC 050731 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 231 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Carolinas dominates the weather pattern with fresh to strong easterly flow observed across the majority of the basin, except the west-central and southwest Gulf where a surface trough runs through the offshore waters with a weaker pressure gradient present. Latest observations indicate 7-10 ft seas across the area of strongest winds with 4-7 ft seas elsewhere. Winds are forecast to reach near gale through the Straits of Florida, and a gale warning is in effect there. East to southeast return flow will prevail across the basin later today through the early part of the week with winds diminishing west of 90W Monday as the weaker gradient moves in. Winds will continue to diminish eastward through the middle of the week, except near the Straits of Florida and north of the Yucatan Peninsula where fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse through Tue night, weakening thereafter. The next cold front will move into the northwest and north-central Gulf Wednesday, weakening significantly across the basin Wednesday night and dissipating Thursday with high pressure over the Carolinas again controlling the weather across the basin for the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Gale force winds continue to pulse northwest of the coast of Colombia and they will continue to do so during the overnight and early morning hours through Thursday night. Fresh to strong trades are elsewhere in the central Caribbean, as well as in the northwest Caribbean and through the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades are reported elsewhere, including in the tropical north Atlantic. Seas are 10-15 ft near the coast of colombia, 5-8 ft in the northwest Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the east Caribbean, and 7-10 ft in the tropical north Atlantic. Fresh to strong trades will expand and encompass the entire basin Monday night into Tuesday as strong high pressure builds down from north of the area. Winds will then diminish in the northwest Caribbean by the middle through the end of the week as the high north of the area shifts eastward. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A slow moving cold front extends from 25N65W to the southeast Bahamas with a reinforcing front moving in just behind it. The two boundaries are expected to merge later today. Strong to near gale force winds are observed south of 29N and west of the front and a gale warning is in effect through the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere west of the front, with moderate to fresh trades ahead of the front. Seas are building to up to 12-15 ft just east of the central Bahamas, with 8-12 ft elsewhere west of the front except 5-8 ft in the far northwest corner. Seas are 6-8 ft east of the front. The cold front will move southeastward while weakening, extending from 22N61W to the Mona Passage this evening, exiting the area completely on Monday. Fresh to near gale force winds will persist south of 27N through Tuesday morning, then will diminish from north to south as the strong high pressure supporting the winds drops to the east-southeast through the middle of the week. Southerly return flow will setup north of 27N by the middle of the week as this occurs and ahead of the next cold front. That front will enter the northwest portion Wednesday afternoon, extending from 31N69W to the northern Bahamas Thursday morning, then weakening as it continues to the southeast. Other than a wind-shift, not much impact is currently forecast with this next front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... Gale Warning today and tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. Gale Warning tonight into Mon. Gale Conditions Possible Mon night into Tue. Gale Conditions Possible Tue night into Wed. Gale Conditions Possible Wed night into Thu. Gale Conditions Possible Thu night into Fri. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... Gale Warning early today. Gale Warning tonight into Mon. Gale Warning Mon night into Tue. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... Gale Warning today and tonight. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.