000 AGXX40 KNHC 041909 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 209 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Yesterdays cold front has moved SE and into the NW Carib, with frontal remnants across Wrn Gulf clearly evident in stlt imagery and recent ASCAT pass, from 1023 low pres across extreme NE Mexico SSE and across Mexican coastal waters to just W of Coatzacoalcos. Strong high pres to the NNE has induced strong pres gradient across the basin, with ENE to E winds 20-25 kt covering most of basin E of old boundary. Buoy obs and recent altimeter data suggest a broad swath of 9-10 ft seas from Straits of FL WNW to offshore of S Texas and NE Mexico, with isolated areas to 11 and 12 ft. A 1210Z altimeter pass showed 9-11 ft seas just E of 95.5W and offshore of Veracruz. Winds will diminish slightly over the west-central and southwest waters today, while the fresh to strong winds continue over the eastern waters through Monday with southerly return flow prevailing across the basin early next week. Winds will diminish Tuesday. The next cold front may enter the northwest portion late Tuesday night, reaching from the western Florida Panhandle to the Texas coast Wednesday morning, sinking south through the day. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Cold front appears to be washing out across the NW Carib from central Cuba to SE of Cozumel attm, with pres gradient W half of basin slowly tightening. NE winds around 20 kt prevail in the lee of Cuba on both sides of front and through the Windward Passage. Seas were 5-9 ft NW part at 12Z and likely 5-8 ft Windward Passage, and has subsided by a ft or so since. An ongoing nocturnally pulsing gale event off coast of Colombia is assumed to have diminished below gale force late this morning. Seas were estimated 9-15 ft across and downstream of this wind max this morning and have fallen 1-2 ft since. Altimeter data suggested an elongated area of seas to 8 ft in E wind swell from 12-14N from 63W to 71W. Winds will continue to pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia through Wednesday night, peaking near 40 kt in the early hours of Sunday. Winds may also reach gale force downwind of the Windward Passage Sunday night, although model guidance has trended lower for gale force probabilities. Winds will diminish over the eastern Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic this weekend when high pressure north of the area retreats eastward ahead of a cold front moving off the southeast coast of the United States. High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front, which will increase winds over the western Caribbean waters late this weekend into early next week. Winds will diminish in the northwest Caribbean by the middle of the week as the pressure gradient weakens there. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Cold front extends from 31N43.5W to the central Bahamas, with a secondary from now sinking to about 29N across the local waters. Morning ASCAT data indicated a large swath of solid 25 kt N to NE winds behind the front to 27.5N between 64W and the Straits. Very large area of 25 kt NE winds currently prevails from just E of the Bahamas through the Straits and generating very rough marine conditions, especially against the Florida Current through the Straits. Seas within this zone are 9-13 ft E of Bahamas and likely 4-7 ft across the Banks and 6-9 ft SE FL coastal waters. The cold front will move southeastward while weakening, extending from 25N65W through the southeast Bahamas to northeast Cuba this evening, then from 22N61W to the Mona Passage Sunday evening as a weakening front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with fresh to strong winds and seas reaching near 10-14 ft prevailing over much of the forecast waters south of 27N by Sunday. Winds will diminish across the waters north of 27N early next week. The next cold front may enter the northwest portion Wednesday, reaching from 31N68W to the northern Bahamas by Thursday morning. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.