000 AGXX40 KNHC 251840 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 140 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Scatterometer data this morning placed a cold front from the Florida Panhandle to just north of Tampico, Mexico, with a pronounced north wind shift well ahead of the front associated with a pre-frontal trough that extended from SW Florida to near Vera Cruz Mexico. The eastern portion of the front will continue to move eastward through tonight, extending from south Florida to near 25N90W by Sunday, while the western portion stalls out as it becomes oriented east to west along about 25N. Northerly winds of 20 to 25 kt this morning north of the front are now tapering off to 15 to 20 kt. High pressure over the interior central U.S. will shift eastward across the southeast U.S. through tonight, and off the eastern U.S. coast late Sunday night. The eastward shift of the high will result in the eastern portion of the front also stalling out by late Sunday, with the entire front then weakening as it lifts northward Sunday night into Monday. Moderate to fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Wednesday. By Wednesday night, a cold front will cross the northwestern Gulf, reaching from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Thursday. Strong northerly winds will follow this front, with the potential for a Gale to develop over the southwest Gulf on Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A weak pressure pattern will continue to support light to moderate winds over the majority of the Caribbean through tonight, except for locally strong winds induced by terrain along the coast of Colombia tonight. High pressure building north of the region will bring increasing trades developing across the Caribbean Sunday into Sunday night. By Monday morning, fresh to locally strong trades will cover the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, including the tropical Atlantic waters. By Monday night, the stronger trades will be enhanced by the nocturnal influences north of Colombia to support Gale winds each night Monday night through Wednesday night. Currently wave guidance peaks wave heights between 12 to 13 ft under the strongest winds, with a broader area of 8 to 10 ft seas persisting across the south central Caribbean Monday through Thursday, between about 72W and 80W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft, supported by fresh trade wind flow, will build across the tropical Atlantic zones early next week as well. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front extending southward from low pressure departing the region over the northwestern Atlantic will dissipate through this evening as the front loses the upper level support. After a brief break from active weather over the SW N Atlantic, a cold front will begin to cross the northwestern waters tonight, with briefly strong northerly winds and seas to 8 ft affecting waters mainly north of 30N, west of the front, through late Sunday morning. The front will cross the zones eastward to southeastward through Sunday night, before exiting our zones to the east on Monday. High pressure will then build across the region and will dominate the SW N Atlantic with generally benign marine conditions through Wednesday. The only exception may be strong winds that models are forecasting to pulse north of Haiti and the Windward Passage Monday through Tuesday night. Late in the forecast period, forecast models are indicating another cold front approaching the northwestern waters. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.