000 AGXX40 KNHC 190650 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Monday, then low afterwards. High pressure in the west-central Atlantic and low pressure in Texas is supporting gentle to moderate southerly winds across the basin this morning. Buoy data and ship observations indicate seas are generally 3-4 ft. Winds will increase in the western half of the Gulf today as the pressure gradient tightens with elongated low pressure troughing from central Texas to eastern Mexico. Model guidance shows the elongated troughing and associated broad low pressure slowly moving west to east across the basin Monday night through Thursday. Due to a continued lack of model consensus, confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is low. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure north-northeast of the Caribbean is maintaining moderate easterly to southeast flow across the waters, except near the Gulf of Honduras and along the northwest coast of Colombia where some fresh to strong nocturnal pulses continue. Seas are generally 3-4 ft, except 5-8 ft in areas of stronger winds. Expect the areas of stronger winds to continue to pulse through late Monday night, approaching near gale force offshore of Colombia each night, with seas building to 8-11 ft. A broad low pressure system in the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help to weaken the pressure pattern in the Caribbean later in the week, with relatively tranquil marine conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Moderate to high confidence. High pressure centered near 27N67W will shift east today while a surface trough moving off the SE Georgia coast deepens into an area of low pressure and moves east along 31N to near 72W by tonight. Scatterometer data and buoy observations show gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across most of the forecast area. Seas are generally 3-4 ft west of 70W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. A weak cold front trailing south of the low tracking along 31N will move east of the Bahamas through Monday. The low and its frontal boundary will move east of 65W Monday night. High pressure over the southeast US will slowly shift east-southeast Tuesday through Thursday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.