000 AGXX40 KNHC 130800 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Tuesday, then average confidence Wednesday with regards to the potential for gale force winds over the southwest Gulf. High pressure prevails over the forecast waters. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data reveal gentle to moderate east to southeast return flow over the western Gulf, and light to gentle anticyclonic winds over the eastern Gulf. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the western waters and 1-3 ft over the eastern waters. The area of high pressure will weaken tonight as a cold front clips the northeast waters late tonight and Monday. High pressure briefly builds across the area in the wake of this front before retreating eastward. This will enable a second cold front to move into the northwest waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. The front will shift across the Gulf waters, and move southeast of the area by Thursday afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will follow in behind the front through Wednesday. Near force gale winds are expected over the southwest portion of the gulf where a very tight pressure gradient develops between high pressure ridging surging southward across eastern Mexico and the front. There is a chance that winds behind the front may reach minimal gale force over the southwest waters, which will bear watching. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure is centered north of the area. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict strong to near gale force winds over the south central Caribbean, fresh to strong winds over the windward passage, moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the Caribbean waters, and moderate winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters. The 0250Z Ascat pass suggested that minimal gale force winds could be occurring near the coast of Colombia. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the south central Caribbean, with the highest of these seas near the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, seas are 7-8 ft over the windward passage, 5-7 ft over the north-central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the remainder of the Caribbean, and 6-7 ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters. The near gale to minimal gale force winds in the south central Caribbean will begin to diminish later this morning as high pressure north of the area weakens over the next day or so. This will loosen the pressure gradient over the forecast waters, diminishing winds and allowing seas to subside. Winds and seas are expected to diminish below advisory criteria by early Tuesday morning. Northwesterly swell in the tropical north Atlantic waters continues to decay.. Seas will continue to subside through midweek before another set of northwesterly swells propagate into the area. A weakening cold front will move into the far northwest Caribbean waters on Thursday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure prevails over the forecast area. A dissipating stationary front prevails over the southeast waters. A cold front is fast approaching the far northwest corner of the basin. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data show moderate to fresh winds over the southern waters, reaching strong in the approach to the windward passage. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the far northern waters north of 30N, and light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the southern waters outside the Bahamas, 3-5 ft over the northwest waters, 5-7 ft elsewhere outside the Bahamas, and 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas. The stationary front will dissipate today, with its remnants drifting southeastward across the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico tonight and Tuesday. A progressive pattern will see a couple of cold fronts passing across the forecast waters. The first cold front will move across mainly the northern half of the forecast area this morning and through Tuesday. This front will usher in a set of northwesterly swell which will affect mainly the eastern waters the first half of the week, with highest seas over the northeast waters. A second cold front will move into the northwest waters Wednesday night. This front will be accompanied by near gale southwesterly winds east of the front. The front will also usher in a set of northwesterly swell with seas reaching near 16 ft over the northeast waters of zone AMZ115 by Thursday night. There remains the chance that gale force winds ahead of the front may clip the far northern waters. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wednesday S of 20N and W of 95W. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.