000 AGXX40 KNHC 070901 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 401 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. A ridge extends SW from a surface high between Bermuda and Cape Hatteras across the nrn gulf and is producing moderate Ely flow across most of S part of basin and moderate SE return flow NW portions. Max seas appear to be around 5 ft offshore waters of SE TX per recent obs and evening altimeter data and generally 3-4 ft elsewhere except 1-2 ft far NE. The ridge will remain in place and be nudged slightly swd to along about 24N next 48 hrs as a series of significant s/w and associated frontal boundaries sweep ESE across the basin and into W Atlc. As the ridge shifts Swd return flow will encompass entire basin today and then veer SW beginning from W to E today through tonight as first s/w and weak frontal boundary brush E along N coastal plains. A more significant front will then sink SE into the N gulf early Thu and quickly move SE across most of basin, reaching from extreme S Fl to near BRO by Thu evening then rotate cyclonically and reach from NW Carib to NE TX by Fri evening. Look for N to NE winds 20-25 kt initially behind front veering NE to E. Front will move so quickly models not generating wave higher than 6-7 ft and will go 6-8 ft to allow for low bias. Return flow to quickly set up behind front Fri through Sat as post frontal ridge shifts rather quickly E across the SE U.S. and into W Atlc. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Strong to near gale force ne flow, and 8 to 14 ft seas, are expected across the S central Caribbean this week from about 10N to 16N between 70W and 80W to include the Gulf of Venezuela. Nocturnal wind max off Colombian coast presently yielding minimal gales and will again very briefly tonight. Moderate to locally fresh ne to e winds are expected elsewhere across the Caribbean through Sat. Fresh trades are forecast across the tropical waters e of the Lesser Antilles through late Tue, with 7 to 9 ft seas primarily in mixing n and ene swell with the Ely swell predominant. The gradient will tighten across the tropics tonight through Wed as Atlc ridge shifts due N of 50-60W, with fresh to strong trades e of the Lesser Antilles through Wed. The gradient will relax late in the week with winds diminishing to a moderate ne breeze and seas subsiding to 5 to 8 ft on Sat. A cold front will move across W Cuba and Yucatan Channel Fri morning and then become diffuse E to W along about 21N on Sat. NNW post frontal swell will arrive in the NE Carib passages on Sat and increase to large by Sat night, reaching the tropical N Atlc late Sat through Sun. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Weakening cold front strung out across NE waters past 24 hours beginning to drift N across NE waters overnight while ridges prevail to the NW and SE of this weak boundary. This pattern producing moderate to locally fresh ENE trades across waters S of 25N attm while weak Ely perturbation moving across 70W is producing broken multi layered clouds and scattered moderate cnvtn. The ridge extending SW into the GulfMex will become dominant today as it shifts ENE and into central Atlc allowing for SE to S winds to build across most of area and freshen this afternoon then begin to veer S to SW Wed as weak front sweeps E across nrn GulfMex. A second more significant front will move into the far NW waters Thu afternoon and then rapidly SE overnight reaching from 30N60W to central Bahamas and central Cuba Fri morning then begin to stall from NW Haiti across the SE waters over the weekend. Strong high pres behind front to combine with broad deepening low across W Atlc to produce large NNW to N swell that will invade the regional waters and produce brief period of strong NW to N winds behind front Thu night and Fri and then a narrow zone of NE winds N of front Sat and Sun. Models continue to come in much better agreement with this frontal boundary and associated winds and seas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.