000 AGXX40 KNHC 021845 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Weak high pressure centered over the Florida big bend will linger through Friday. This system will maintain light winds over the northeast Gulf and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas will range from 1 to 3 ft over the northeastern Gulf and 3 to 4 ft over the remainder of the Gulf. The high pressure will weaken later on Friday as a cold front approaches the northern Gulf coast. This front will cross the northern half of the Gulf Friday evening, then continue southeastward over the remainder of the eastern Gulf Friday night and Saturday morning. High pressure well inland over the eastern United States will build in behind this front and support mainly moderate northeast to east winds over the gulf basin Friday night through Saturday. The main high center will slide east over the Atlantic from the Carolinas Saturday night. Weak ridging will extend SW from the high across the northern Gulf. This weak ridge will remain in place Saturday night through Monday before the ridge retreats eastward over the western Atlantic Monday night and Tuesday. The weak ridging pattern on Sunday and Monday will produce gentle winds over the northern Gulf and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the southern Gulf with seas will range between 2 and 4 ft over most of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The pressure gradient between ridging north of the Caribbean and persistent low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south central Caribbean through Monday night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will continue to pulse to near gale force each night. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will be generated south of 15N between about 70W and 80W by the persistent stronger winds over this portion of the Caribbean. Seas will peak nightly between 10 and 12 ft about 90 nm north of the coast of Colombia where winds are strongest. Large trade-wind swell will maintain seas of 9 to 12 ft in the tropical Atlantic zones through Friday. Northeast to east winds will remain fresh to strong over these zones through Friday as well. Winds and seas will briefly diminish Saturday through Monday as a passing cold front weakens the ridge north of the area. Trade winds and associated seas will once again increase Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge to the north rebuilds. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A weakening stationary front from 27N63W to near the central Bahamas at 23N74W will become a trough tonight. The trough will serve as the focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms the next couple of days as it weakens as well over the northeastern forecast zones. Otherwise, a weak ridge axis extends across the northern waters. The ridge is producing gentle winds north of 27N and moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 27N. Seas range from 3 to 7 ft over the open Atlc waters. This pattern will persist through Friday. Late Friday a cold front will cross the northwestern waters and then quickly sweep across the Atlc waters mainly north of 24N through Saturday. The front will exit the zones to the east by Saturday night. Fresh northerly winds will follow in the wake of the front as far south as 27N. Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft N of 28N and E of 75W Saturday through Sunday night. Another cold front will pass through the northern waters from west to east late Saturday through Monday. The front will then stall and weaken in the vicinity of 25N. Current model runs suggest this front will not produce winds reaching advisory levels. NW swell could cause seas to reach 8 to 9 ft over the far northeastern zones. The southern zones will largely be unaffected by these frontal passages through the forecast period and will likely see moderate to fresh easterlies prevail. Over the far southeastern zone AMZ127 expect trade wind induced swell to maintain sea heights between 8 and 10 ft through Friday night. Sea heights will remain below 8 ft until Monday night, when NW swell will combine with trade-wind swell to cause seas to rebuild to between 7 and 9 feet from west to east. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.