000 AGXX40 KNHC 271750 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1250 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A slow-moving cold front extends from the SW Florida coast near 26N82W to 23N90W, then southward to 18N94W. Strong high pressure is building into Texas, which is then expected to push southward into southern Mexico through Sunday. The cold front will stall over the southern Gulf Saturday, but a reinforcing burst of cold air Sunday will drive the front southward into the northwest Caribbean. A tight pressure gradient is expected to develop by tonight between the frontal boundary and the strong high pressure building southward, creating a situation where gale force winds will be present north and west of the front, primarily west of 93W, Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Near gale force northerly winds will persist south of 24N in the Bay of Campeche Sunday, then diminish Sunday night and Monday as high pressure settles in across the region. Much more tranquil conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Scatterometer data this morning showed strong northeast to east winds along the coast of Colombia, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central Caribbean, and light to moderate trades in the remainder of the area. Winds will pulse to near gale force again along the coast of Colombia tonight and at times during the overnight hours through Tuesday, with max induced seas reaching 12 ft. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sunday afternoon, then reach from central Cuba to north-central Honduras by Monday morning, and from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras Monday evening. Fresh to strong north to northeast flow and 7-9 ft seas will accompany the front, but will diminish over most areas in the western Caribbean Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure will build northeast of the area this weekend and freshen trades in the tropical Atlantic, and allow seas to build to 7-9 ft. Northeast to east swell will move through the eastern portions of the Tropical North Atlantic Saturday night through Sunday night then decay Monday through Tuesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front extends across the forecast area from 31N73W to southern Florida. A ridge centered near 27N55W behind an earlier cold front is retreating eastward into the central Atlantic. The cold front will reach from 31N65W to the Straits of Florida Saturday, where it will become stall and weaken. Reinforcing cold air will push a merged front eastward Sunday to extend from 3165W to eastern Cuba by Monday. High pressure will build eastward across the basin behind the front, and promote rather quiet conditions throughout. Seas of 6-7 ft in lingering swell are expected in the southeast part of the basin on Tuesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sat into Sat night. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Gale Warning Sat into Sat night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sat into Sat night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning Sat night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.