000 AGXX40 KNHC 270752 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 252 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The cold front that moved off the Tx coast yesterday passes through the SW FL coast near 27N82W, southwestward to 23N90W, to 19N93W in the SW corner of the Glfmex. Strong high pressure is building southeastward over the western gulf in the wake of the front. South to southwest winds of 10-15 kt are ahead of the front, while north to northeast 20-25 kt are behind the front as noted in the buoy observations, and in scatterometer data. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range behind the front, and in the 3-4 ft range ahead of the front. Lower seas of 2-3 ft are confined to the eastern Bay of Campeche and in the extreme northern part of the Gulf. Models continue to suggest that the front will become stationary in the southern part of the Gulf on Friday, and gradually become diffuse through the weekend. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas of 6-8 ft will follow in the wake of the front, except offshore of Veracruz where model guidance is indicating minimal gale force northwest winds on Thursday, and seas building higher to a possible maximum of around 11 ft. High pressure will build across the area Friday through Sunday. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten in some sections of the western gulf Friday evening through Sunday, with near gale to gale force north-northeast winds in the far western waters beginning Saturday night. These winds will shift southward into the southwest Gulf of Mexico late Saturday night into Sunday and diminish Sunday night through Monday as the high pressure settles in across the region. High pressure will settle in over the area Monday through Tuesday night allowing for more tranquil conditions throughout the forecast waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The Ascat pass from 27/0256Z this morning showed strong northeast to east winds along the coast of Colombia. The Ascat pass showed moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central Caribbean, and light to moderate trades in the remainder of the area. Winds will pulse to near gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight and again during the overnight hours through Tuesday, with induced seas reaching 12 or 13 ft. A cold front is forecast to move south of the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sunday afternoon, reaching from central Cuba to north-central Honduras by Monday morning, then from near the eastern tip of Cuba to eastern Honduras Monday evening. Fresh to strong north to northeast flow and seas of 6-8 ft will follow the front, but will diminish most areas in the western Caribbean except on the lee of Cuba Monday night and diminish on Tuesday. Also on Tuesday, strong northeast winds will begin to surge through the Windward passage. In the tropical north Atlantic, moderate trades were noted by scatterometer data, except for light east winds along and to the east of a stationary front that that extends from 19N55W southwest to the just north of Guadeloupe. Seas throughout are 4-6 ft, except 3-4 ft where the light winds are present near the front. The stationary front will dissipate through Friday. High pressure will build northeast of the area thereafter, increasing trades to fresh range this weekend through early next week, allowing for fresh seas to build to 7-9 ft. Northeast to east swell will begin will move through the eastern portions of the Tropical North Atlantic beginning late Saturday night, and through Sunday night before decaying Monday through Tuesday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The tail end of the strong cold front that moved through the majority of the basin earlier this week is lingering in the far southeast part. A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 26N63W, toward south Florida. The latest scatterometer data show light to moderate anticyclonic winds, except for fresh to strong southwest flow north of 30N west of 74W. Seas in northwest swell will continue to subside over the northeast part of the basin through Friday night. Wave model guidance seems to be handling the swell decay and coverage pretty well. The high 1021 mb high pressure will shift eastward through this evening as the cold front emerges off the northeast Fl coast and over the far northwest waters. The cold front will reach from near 31N68W to the Straits of Fl early on Friday, and from near 29N65W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba by early on Saturday night, where it will become stationary and weaken. A second cold front will move over the northwest waters on Sunday. Moisture model guidance suggests that this front will merge with the stationary front by Monday night. High pressure will build eastward across the basin in the wake of this front, with the high center centered near 30N65W by Tuesday evening. This will provide for rather quiet conditions throughout. Seas of 6-7 ft in lingering swell are expected in the southeast part of the basin on Tuesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sat. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat into Sat night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat into Sat night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster MT. National Hurricane Center.