000 AGXX40 KNHC 190937 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 437 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 ...UPDATED... Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to High confidence. A stationary front is over the western Gulf and extends from the Louisina/Texas border to near Tampico Mexico. A band of shower and thunderstorm is associated with the front affecting the NW Gulf. Mainly gentle winds are on either side of the frontal boundary per scatterometer data, however winds and seas could be higher near the thunderstorms. A 1020 mb high pressure located near the Tampa Bay area dominates the remainder of the Gulf, producing mainly light to gentle winds. Seas are generally under 5 ft. Areas of fog, dense in some locations, are developing over the NW Gulf and along the northern Gulf coast to near the Florida Big Bend. Visibilities will be reduced to less than one mile within 60 nm of the coastline through around mid-morning. The front, accompanied by active weather, will move across the north Gulf waters today, then dissipate over the north-central waters by early Friday. A stronger cold front is forecast to push across the Gulf waters during the upcoming weekend. Currently, model guidance indicates that the front will enter the northwestern Gulf Saturday night, reaching from southeast Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico by Sunday morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday evening. A band of showers and thunderstorms will be associated with the front. This front will bring a significant increase in winds and seas across the Gulf waters. Strong to gale force winds are possible behind the front Sunday and Sunday night, with a large area of seas building up to 18-19 ft behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure prevails north of the forecast waters. This combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low continues to support fresh to strong NE-E winds across the south-central Caribbean, moderate to fresh winds over the north-central and eastern Caribbean, moderate winds over the western Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters. Seas are in the 8-10 ft over the south-central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft over the north-central Caribbean, with seas generally under 6 ft across the remainder of the basin. The area of high pressure will weaken later this week, which will allow for trades across the Caribbean to decrease beginning Thursday. During the upcoming weekend, southeast to south winds are expected to increase across the western Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. This front is currently forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel and the northwest Caribbean Sunday night, accompanied by strong winds and building seas. Over the tropical north Atlantic waters, generally tranquil conditions are expected over the next several days. Expect mainly gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front has entered the north waters and extends from 31N68W to 30N73W to 31N76W. Gale force winds, in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front, are N of 30N. These gale conditions are expected to shift east of 65W later this morning. West to northwest winds of 20 to 30 kt are expected behind this front. Seas up to 13-14 ft in NW swell will build in the wake of the front this morning. The front will continue to move SE across the eastern zones on Friday, reaching the southeast waters by Friday night into Saturday while weakening. Then, southerly winds will increase to 20-30 kt across the NW part of the forecast area on Sunday, with seas building to 8-10 ft. These winds are expected to further increase to gale force by Sunday night, with building seas up to 14-16 ft. This significant increase in winds and seas will be associated with a strong cold front forecast to reach the SW N Atlantic by Sunday night. Strong to gale force winds are also expected in the wake of the front. Currently, the forecast package indicates that gale conditions are possible mainly across the waters N of 27N, but gale force winds could also be possible across parts of the southern zones. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Mon. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Mon. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning early today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.