000 AGXX40 KNHC 161910 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 210 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A ridge axis extends across the northern Gulf coast and through Wednesday will support mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds over the gulf, with the exception of tonight near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh to locally strong winds will occur due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. Seas will remain generally between 4 and 6 ft. Model guidance continues to indicate that the next cold front will reach the coast of Texas by Tuesday night, then stall and lift north while dissipating. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected ahead of the frontal boundary that could affect the far NW Gulf. Another cold front is then expected to enter the NW Gulf by Thursday night with guidance indicating widespread showers and thunderstorms spreading from west to east across the northern Gulf Thursday through Friday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure north of the region combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong NE-E winds over the majority of the Caribbean Sea, including through the Windward and Mona passages, and in the lee of Cuba through Wednesday night. Near gale force winds are expected to continue to pulse near the coast of Colombia each night during this time period, with seas up to 11 ft. The ridge north of the region will shift southeast, become elongated, and weaken later this week. This will allow for trades across the Caribbean to decrease by several knots beginning Thursday. Over the tropical Atlantic forecast waters fresh to strong east to northeast winds will continue north of about 15N through tonight before decreasing to moderate. Seas of 8 to 9 ft this afternoon will subside to 8 ft or less later tonight. Generally tranquil conditions are then expected mid to late this week as high pressure shifts closer to the region. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A broad area of fresh to strong northeasterly winds and northeast swell that has been affecting the southern zones the past few days is now confined to mainly south of 22N. These fresh to strong winds will continue south of 22N through Tuesday night, then become confined to mainly the approach to the Windward Passage by Wednesday. Seas to 8 ft will be possible east of the central Bahamas during this time period. North of 22N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of about 4 to 6 ft will prevail through Wednesday. High pressure will slide southward across our area along about 60W Tuesday through Wednesday while weakening. This will bring a decrease in winds over the southern zones Wednesday through the end of the forecast period. By Thursday night a cold front is forecast by global models to approach the northern zones, which will bring about an increase in winds to 20 to 25 kt with seas of 8 to 11 ft, mainly north of 28N and east of 75W as indicated with the latest model runs. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.