000 AGXX40 KNHC 131848 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A high pressure ridge axis that has setup to the north of the northern Gulf coast will remain in tact for the next several days. This pattern will support fresh east to southeast winds over the majority of the Gulf basin with seas generally between 4 and 7 ft. The exceptions to this are a thermal trough that will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and move west over the bay of Campeche each evening supporting strong SE winds. Also, there will periods of time, particularly in the evening and overnight hours, where easterly winds over the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf will increase to 20 to 25 kt. Seas will build to 8 ft over the southeast Gulf during these periods of stronger winds. On Tuesday night, a cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Latest global model runs indicate that this front will weaken fairly quickly. However, the upper trough supporting the front will likely trigger showers and thunderstorms that will traverse the northern gulf from west to east starting Tuesday and lasting through at least Wednesday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure north of the region and lower pressures over south America will continue to support fresh to strong northeasterly winds over the majority of the Caribbean basin, including through the Atlantic passages through the forecast period. Nocturnal enhancements of the trades north of the Colombia coast will result in minimal gale- force winds tonight. Seas will build to 13-14 ft with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. This should be the last night during the forecast period for winds to reach gale force near the Colombia Coast. However, the fresh to strong winds across the Caribbean and including near Colombia will persist through at least Monday night. A large swell event over the western Atlantic will continue to propagate through the Caribbean passages E of Hispaniola, and across the tropical Atlantic zones the next few days. Early next week, the ridge will weaken slightly which will result in the trades relaxing somewhat over the Caribbean basin Tuesday through Wednesday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The pressure gradient between low pressure over the central Atlantic and strong high pressure over the northeast Atlantic continues to support fresh to strong northeasterly winds over the southeastern half of the Atlantic forecast zones, southeast of a line from 31N65W to 25N80W based on this mornings scatterometer data. The fresh to strong NE-E winds are expected to gradually become more confined to the southern zones the next 48 hours as the low pressure to the southeast of the area dissipates. A large swell event is also affecting the SW N Atlantic waters with seas of 8 to 16 ft covering the forecast waters east of 78W and south and east of the Bahama chain. This swell will also become confined to the southern zones and slowly diminish through the weekend as the winds supporting these waves decrease. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.