000 AGXX40 KNHC 110606 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 106 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A narrow band of strong e winds continue through the Fl Straits to along 86W through Thu morning before diminishing to a fresh breeze on Thu afternoon. Still expect the pres gradient to tighten again Thu evening with fresh to locally strong e winds developing again across the Fl Straits late Thu night, and spreading w to near 24N88W late Fri night and continuing through Sun afternoon before diminishing to a fresh breeze. An inverted trough will develop during the late afternoons over the Yucatan Peninsula, then move wnw offshore during the evenings and continue nw during the overnight hours eventually dissipating over the sw gulf waters during the late mornings. Expect a fresh to locally strong ne-e-se wind shift along this trough. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow forecast briefly across the nw gulf tonight, then mostly moderate return flow expected the remainder of the week, except increasing to a fresh breeze during the overnight hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A stationary front extending sw from the Mona Passage to extreme ne Costa Rica will begin to drift nw and gradually weaken to a shear axis late in the week accompanied by showers. The northern segment of this stationary front will begin to move again today as a weak cold front passing through the Leewards through tonight, and continue se eventually washing out across the tropical waters along 14-15N through the upcoming weekend. Nocturnal minimal gale conditions are forecast along the nw coast of Colombia tonight and on Thu night, and possible very briefly on Fri night. Strong to near gale force ne winds are observed elsewhere between 67W and 85W with the possibility of frequent gusts to gale force developing just s of the Dominican Republic this evening. The pressure gradient will relax somewhat on Thu, then strengthen again on Thu night with strong ne-e winds developing to the lee of Cuba, with these strong conditions then spreading w across the Yucatan Basin through Fri night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A stationary front extends sw into the area from near 31N55W through a 1014 mb frontal wave low near 26.5N58W, with a nearly stationary front continuing sw to the Mona Passage. The low will move e initially, and then se later this week dragging the southern segment of the front e as a weak cold front that will pass through the Leewards tonight, and eventually weaken to an e to w shear axis across the tropical waters s of the area along 14-15N as the occluding low shifts e of the area along 22N on Thu night into Fri. Minimal gale force northerly winds and seas to 22 ft are forecast to the n of 27N between 56W and 62W today and early tonight, surrounded by large band of strong to near gale force ne flow w of the front to a line from 31N68W to the nw coast of Cuba. This large band of strong winds will spread w across across the Bahama Channel and the Fl Straits tonight and continue through Thu morning, and then develop again on Thu night and then continue through Sat afternoon. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. Gale Warning tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.