000 AGXX40 KNHC 081945 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 245 PM EST SUN JAN 8 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The strong cold front is now well southeast of the Gulf over the northwest Caribbean Sea. Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front covers the entire basin as 1040 mb high center is analyzed over eastern Mexico near 21N98W. The associated very tight pressure gradient that earlier was producing gale force winds in the far southwest portion of zone GMZ023 has weakened enough to allow for those winds to lower to just below gale force. These winds will continue to diminish through Monday. The high seas resulting from those winds have subsided to around 13 or 14 ft, and continue to subside through tonight to around 5-6 ft by late on Monday. Elsewhere latest and current buoy and oil platform observations show northeast winds of 20-25 kt throughout, except for higher winds of 25-30 kt in the southeast portion of the gulf and Straits of Fl. Combined waveheight elswhere are in the range of 8-12 ft south of 26N, 6-8 ft north of 26N except for lower seas of 4-6 ft north of 29N. These seas will gradually subside through Monday, with a pocket of seas in the 7-10 ft lingering in the far southeast gulf and Straits of Fl at that time. The 7- 10 ft seas will then subside to 6-8 ft late Monday night, and to 5-7 ft late on Tuesday. Models are in very good agreement that the high pressure will shift eastward through the next few days while weakening. A ridge will extend from northeast Fl southwest to near Tampico Mexico by late on Tuesday. This feature will control the wind flow pattern throughout into Friday providing a generally moderate to fresh east-southeast wind flow throughout, except for moderate to strong east winds in the far southeast gulf and t outside the previously described southeast gulf and Straits of Fl. Seas there will build to around 9 ft Wednesday through Friday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The cold front is making headway across the northwest portion of the sea. As of 18Z, it is along a position from eastern Cuba southwest to 18N80W, and to inland north-central Honduras. Strong to near gale force north winds are behind the front along with seas in the range of 8-13 ft. Buoy 42056 at 20N85W is reporting combined seas of 13 ft. An Ascat pass from 1428Z this morning showed fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the central Caribbean south of 15N between 74W and 80W. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8-11 ft. The front will reach from near 20N72W to 16N76W to inland northeast Nicaragua by early on Monday. The very tight gradient between it and the strong high pressure to its northwest will lead to northeast gale winds in a northeast to southwest swath depicted within 60 nm either side of a line from 20N74W to 17N77W to 15N78W including the Windward Passage by around 15Z on Monday. Seas with these winds are expected to be in the 9-12 ft range. Winds elsewhere west of the front will be north to northeast in the strong to near gale force range with combined seas also about 8- 12 ft. The cold front will stall from the northeast portion of the Dominican Republic to 15N74W and dissipating to southern Nicaragua by early on Tuesday. The gale force winds are forecast to continue into early on Tuesday in the same mentioned area, then diminish to 25-30 kt in the afternoon. Seas will remain 8- 12 ft behind the front to near 80W, and 8-10 ft west of 80W. Moderate to fresh trades are expected over the tropical North Atlantic waters through Monday night, then weaker mainly light northeast to east trades through Friday night as the pressure gradient relaxes. The seas of 6-8 ft are forecast to subside to 5-7 ft Monday and Monday night. The leading edge of an extensive area of large northwest swell will begin to impact the northern tropical North Atlantic on Tuesday, and continue to propagate southward reaching the central tropical North Atlantic Thursday and Friday. Resultant seas will be in the in 8-13 ft range, with the highest of these seas confined to the far northern portion of those zones. Trades across the Caribbean become more northeast to east in direction through Friday night as Atlantic high pressure slides eastward. This will also allow for the pressure gradient to slacken leading to diminishing wind speeds throughout the area. The exception will be in the Windward Passage where strong northeast winds will be present Wednesday through Friday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The fast moving strong cold front extends along a position from near 31N65W southwest to 24N72W to eastern Cuba as of 18Z. Strong high pressure is building southeastward in the wake of the front. The Ascat pass from 1424Z this morning revealed an extensive area of strong to near gale force north winds to the northwest of the front. Both altimeter data and buoy observations are reporting seas in the 8-14 ft range north and northeast of the Bahamas. The front is accompanied and preceded by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 24N. The front will reach from near 31N56W to Hispaniola on Mon, then begin to weaken and slow down as it moves through the far southeast waters and far northwest portion of the tropical North Atlantic Tuesday through Wednesday. Strong to near gale force nw to n winds will follow the front through Monday night. Winds and seas will diminish and subside from the northwest to southeast beginning tonight. By Thursday, a swath of strong northeast winds is forecast to be situated to the southeast of a line from 31N66W to 26N73W to near 22N78W with seas of 9-14 ft east of the the Bahamas in a tight pressure gradient between the eastward shifting high pressure and broad eastern Atlantic weak low pressure that moves westward to the central Atlantic. These conditions spread westward through the central and southeast Bahamas during Thursday and through Friday night, with seas of 11-14 ft east of the Bahamas and seas of 8-12 ft northeast of the Bahamas. Seas of 10-14 ft are expected between the Bahamas and Fl where the gulfstream current is located through late tonight before subsiding to 8-11 ft Monday, to 6-8 ft Monday night and Tuesday, and to lower ranges of 5-6 ft Wednesday through Thursday, then build to around 8 ft from 27N to 29N west of the Bahamas Friday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Gale Warning Mon into Tue. .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... Gale Warning Mon into Tue. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.