000 AGXX40 KNHC 011821 RRA MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1233 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A ridge dissects the Gulf of Mexico from central Fl to se TX with fresh to locally strong return flow expected to persist ahead of a cold front moving off the TX coast on Mon morning. As the southerly winds clock to the s to sw on Mon ahead of the front they will increase to 20-30 kt with seas building to 8 ft. These southerly winds will diminish to 15-20 kt on Mon evening as the front slows, but continues e reaching from the Fl big bend to the central Bay of Campeche on Tue evening. The pressure gradient will increase late Tue night into Wed accelerating the cold front again, and this should push it through the Straits of Fl on Wed night. The post-frontal high pressure will result in strong to near gale northerly winds across the western gulf on Thu with strong n-ne across the w-central waters Thu night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. The gradient between Atlc high pressure and persistent low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting strong winds to near gale ne-e winds with 7-11 ft seas across the central Caribbean, with brief minimal gale winds expected tonight and again very briefly on Mon night with seas building to about 14 ft just downstream of the gale area. Locally strong trades will develop across the e Caribbean on Mon. A small area of strong winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A weakening cold front will move slowly se through the Yucatan Channel on Wed evening and lose identity over the nw Caribbean on Thu into Fri. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence. A ridge extends from 31N65W to central Fl, and a weakening frontal trough extends e to w along 23N to the e of the Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong e winds expected s of the ridge, including across the Atlc approaches to the Windward Passage and even the Mona Passage briefly tonight. Little change expected through early Tue when the gradient will relax somewhat across the tropics. By then southerly return flow will increase over the far nw waters ahead of a cold front moving off the ne Fl coast on Tue evening. A surface low may develop along the front near 31N72W on Thu, with the cold front trailing s across the central Bahamas. The front should reach from Bermuda to the Windward Passage on Fri, with fresh to locally strong nw flow w of the front beginning on Thu evening. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight into Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.