000 AGXX40 KNHC 011047 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 547 AM EST THU DEC 1 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. THE cold front has stalled across the SW gulf from just NW of buoy 42055 to central Bay of Campeche while E portions has continued SE and has reached FL Big Bend. Evening and overnight obs behind front show our SWH forecast WAY too low as 42002 was 13 ft at 00Z. Too, obs from Isla de Sacrificio off of Veracruz suggested gales from about 18Z to 01Z and we were about 6 hours too slow with Gale warning there. Seas remain above guidance attm and ECWave higher than WW3 and still 1-2 ft low behind frontal zone. Winds and seas should diminish as forecast by models today as E portion of front continues moving SE and W half remains stationary. The W half of front will weaken with the remnant boundary drifting northward tonight and Fri, with fresh to strong E-SE winds developing to its N and over most of the northwest and north central gulf Fri and Fri night. Still some modest disagreement between primary model guidance Fri night into the weekend and into early next week although all but GFS have trended somewhat toward the EC. Have thus trended forecast toward the EC and Ecwave and show strong ESE flow across NW gulf Fri night becoming SE and expanding S and E as sfc low attempt to develop across NE Mexico. Frontal zone develops along Texas coast Sun morning with fresh to strong return flow across entire Gulf by then. Cold front then sweep E across the gulf reaching Mobile Bay to E Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. A brief blast of NW winds are seen behind the front Mon night through morning before a weak high moves into W central gulf and shifts tighter pres gradient to NW gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Broad ridge remains N of the basin and shifting ESE while remnants of sfc low NE of area yda have move wwd across ern DR and weakened further. Broad trough extends from NW Venezuela to NE Carib with good moisture remaining E of the trough. Supporting upper trough has shifted SSE and weakened considerably with broad subsidence now dominating all but extreme NE Carib attm. No deviation from guidance in overnight observations. The trough will move westward across the basin through Sat and become diffuse as it enters Central America Sat night. E to SE tradewinds will freshen N and E of the trough tonight through Sat as high pressure north of the area moves SE into the Central Atlantic. Also expect SE winds to freshen the western half of the basin Sun and Mon as the aforementioned cold front in the Gulf of Mexico moves eastward. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF. High pressure SE of Bermuda is shifting SE and will move into the Central Atlantic through Sat. A tight pressure gradient continuesS of the ridge across the southern waters S of 25N where fresh to strong winds persist and overnight obs suggest seas still 8-11 ft. Winds and seas to gradually subside next 24 hours as high shifts SE and NE Carib trough moves W across Greater Antilles. A cold front will move off the coast of NE Florida this morning and extend from 31N76W to near the Cape by this evening, then from 31N69W to FLL by Fri evening, where it will begin to stall across the NW Bahamas and S FL while continue to move more slowly SE across the Ern waters through early Sun. Miami Fri, and from 29N65W to the Straits of Florida Sat. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will prevail E of front across far N waters through Fri, then strengthen Fri night and Sat across far NE waters and parent system strengthens across the NW Atlc. A narrow ridge will move off the E coast Sun evening behind the front as return flow develops from NW Bahamas across NW waters and then strengthens and expands slightly E and SE Mon as high moves SE and into far NE offshore area. Very large and impressive low will have evolved out of this over the weekend across the N central Atlc and will send moderate N swell into E half of waters Sun through Tue. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.