000 AGXX40 KNHC 020544 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 144 AM EDT WED NOV 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT THE LOW LEVELS A NE TO SW ORIENTATED RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA AT S-CENTRAL LA AND CONTINUES SW ACROSS INTERIOR TX. A NW TO SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH EARLY SUN...WITH THE STRONGEST CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OF 15- 20 KT OCCURRING DURING PEAK HEATING ON FRI AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE N ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF TS OVER THE W-CENTRAL WATERS. A CORRESPONDING AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE-E LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N E OF 91W...WITH AN EMBEDDED SWATH OF STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE SE PORTION WHERE SEAS MAX AT 8 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO MODERATE S OF A RIDGE FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE FL STRAITS ON THU NIGHT. REINFORCING HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF EARLY FRI WILL RESULT IN FRESH NW-N WINDS ACROSS THE NE GULF EARLY FRI...WITH THESE FRESH CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS E OF 95W ON FRI NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SWATH OF STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL REORIENTATE FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS ON SUN...WITH FRESH NE-E WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SE WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 16N-17N...WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION OBSERVED NEAR 20N85W. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO DRIFT S TODAY AND EXTEND NW TO SE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THU...THEN DRIFT FURTHER S AND MERGE INTO THE W TO E ORIENTATED MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 09N LATER IN THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE ON THU NIGHT. A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW JUST S OF PUERTO RICO WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH FROM THE LEEWARDS TO 15N68W TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W STALL AND BECOME ORIENTATED N-S ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SAT...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 15N72W ON SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING FROM 31N62W TO 28N71W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 24N55W TO ACROSS PUERTO RICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM 31N60W TO 20N70W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER AND TO THE SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A FEW SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH TODAY...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW REACHING NEAR 23N52W THIS EVENING. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES NE IT WILL TRAIL A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH SW TO THE LEEWARDS THROUGH MIDDAY FRI WHEN IT SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS ON THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRONG N WINDS BUILDING SEAS TO 11 FT THROUGH SAT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SAT...FROM 31N60W TO HISPANIOLA ON SUN NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.