000 AGXX40 KNHC 101803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 203 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ IN THE SW GULF WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE W GULF AND DRIFT WESTWARD AND NEAR THE S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COASTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE SE U.S. AND THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. T.S. NICOLE N OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN ATLC WILL HELP MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE S OF JAMAICA ALONG 77W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY. A THIRD WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 46W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE NEAR THE LEEWARD AND ATLC WATERS E OF 65W THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NICOLE IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 65W. NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE. THEN...THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD N OF 30N. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 31N67W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NW OF NICOLE LATE TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER A LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SWELL MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM MATTHEW...STRONG WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT...AND SWELL GENERATED BY NICOLE...WILL PRODUCE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 15 FT SEAS IN THE WATERS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS SWELL WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ATLANTIC EXPOSURES OF THE BAHAMAS. ONCE NICOLE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT W OF 65W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.