000 AGXX40 KNHC 210631 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 231 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NE GULF AND A TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF IS SUPPORTING GENTLE EASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN WEAK AND DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SAT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SUN THROUGH TUE. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO SAT. OTHERWISE...A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THERE WILL BE VARIATIONS IN COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER TRADES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAKNESSES DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA HAS WEAKENED THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS AND USHERED IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REGION N OF 24N. SEAS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THE NEXT 2 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKER TRADES AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS EASTWARD. DAILY PULSING OF FRESH E WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL WEAKEN BUT CONTINUE THROUGH SAT EVEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT A HIGH PRES RIDGE TO REDEVELOP ALONG 29-30N SUN AND EXTEND WESTWARD TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W WILL BRUSH PAST THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.