000 AGXX40 KNHC 190700 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD. ASCAT DATA SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF FRESH EASTERLY WINDS W OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N. SHIP OBS INDICATE SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE 5-7 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AREA OF FRESH WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES W OF 90W. ELSEWHERE A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT...AND INDUCE A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH NE WINDS AND BUILD MAX SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS N OF THE AREA ALONG 31N-32N WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN WEAKEN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME HIGHLY VARIABLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD N OF 26N AS MINOR TRANSITORY FEATURES PLAY A LARGER ROLE LACKING A STRONG SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION...AS IS THE CASE AT PRESENT. EXPECT WINDS TO TREND TOWARD 5-10 KT OVER NORTHERN WATERS AND 10- 15 KT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER WED...WITH A CORRESPONDING DROP IN SEA HEIGHTS BY 1-3 FT FROM CURRENT LEVELS. THE DAILY PERIODS OF FRESH E WINDS FOUND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL LARGELY DISAPPEAR AFTER WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.