000 AGXX40 KNHC 071847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 247 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR WINDS AND SEAS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LINGERING TROPICAL AIR MASS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING POST-TROPICAL STORM COLIN SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD...LIKELY MERGING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGHING RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON WED...AND THEN CONTINUING TO DRIFT NORTHWARD TO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF ON THU. MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO CLOSE OFF THIS TROUGH INTO A SURFACE LOW DURING THIS 2 TO 3 DAY TIME PERIOD...THEREFORE RESULTING IN ONLY A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE MID RANGE TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO A LOW...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE SE GULF THROUGH THU. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAVE BEEN SUBSIDING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HAVE REACHED THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FLORIDA COAST. THESE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK OVER THE BASIN...WITH WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY. THIS REGION OF CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSFORM INTO A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ASIDE FROM VARIABLE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES COVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ATLC BASIN MID WEEK RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN TRADES OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAILING OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PULSING EACH NIGHT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLIN HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY AS IT HAS BEGUN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING 200 NM SE OF THE CENTER REACHED THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF ZONE AMZ011 THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE STORM IS ACCELERATING NE WITH WINDS SUBSIDING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR FORECAST WATERS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER OUR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE POST-TROPICAL LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT TODAY W OF 75W WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF 29N AND PROPAGATE EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BY THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC W OF 70W WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS THU THROUGH SAT. TO THE EAST OF 70W...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 26/27N WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.