000 AGXX40 KNHC 231844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. USED 1150Z OBSERVATION FROM BUOY 42002 TO INITIALIZE COMBINED SEAS AT 5 FT 200 NM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 1217Z ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATED WINDS OF 5-10 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WERE OBSERVED JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHILE REMAINING COLD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY SERVED AS THE FOCUS FOR AN MCS YESTERDAY BUT AT PRESENT THERE IS LITTLE ASSOCIATED WEATHER WITH IT. THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY FRI EVENING. THE DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THEN MOVE OVER THE SW GULF AT NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IS EXPECTED JUST N OF THE YUCATAN COAST TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN WAVERING FROM RUN TO RUN REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGHS AND HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH DURING THE MOST RECENT CYCLE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 12Z FROM BUOY 42059 IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 15N68W ARE RANGING 17-19 KT FOR WINDS AND REMAINING AROUND 6 FT FOR SEAS. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 1150Z FROM BUOY 42058 ARE COMING IN WITH WINDS AROUND 19 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FT. 1142Z RAPIDSCAT IMAGERY SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 11N TO 13N. 20-25 KT WINDS WERE OBSERVED FARTHER N OF THE COLOMBIAN AND VENEZUELAN COASTS FROM 13N TO 17N. 2320Z ALTIMETRY BETWEEN COLUMBIA AND JAMAICA INDICATED SEAS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FT. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA IS CAUSING A CORRESPONDING EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WIND MAXIMUM OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH WED...THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N ATLANTIC WEAKENS THE RIDGE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER VENEZUELA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS OVER LAND. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED...REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE FRI. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT 12Z IT STRETCHED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 31N73W TO FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED RETURN FLOW E OF THE FRONT REMAINS GENTLE TO MODERATE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N44W WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N72W. STILL EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BEGIN WEAKENING AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THU...THEN SHIFT BACK W FRI AS A FRONTAL TROUGH. GFS IS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE TROUGH ON SAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW AS OTHER MODELS ARE NOT IN CONCERT WITH THIS SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE NE TO E WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.