000 AGXX40 KNHC 201730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS...AND WW3 GUIDANCE FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE N GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SUN WILL HELP TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE E GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF...WITH VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE N GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING MAINLY W OF 90W MON NIGHT INTO WED. ELSEWHERE...A DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING. EXPECT A SMALL AREA OF FRESH E WINDS NEAR THE NE YUCATAN COAST EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS...AND WW3 GUIDANCE FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING THIS PATTERN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THIS AREA SUN THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATER IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FRESH-STRONG WINDS TO REDEVELOP IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIB WED. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS...AND WW3 GUIDANCE FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT OVER NE WATERS FROM 30N65W 27N74W WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME ELONGATED FROM 29N65W TO 28N69W THROUGH SAT. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE TO 29N75W. THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY N-NE AND DRAG A COLD FRONT SE OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND...THEN REDEVELOP TUE AND WED BEHIND THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN TRADE WINDS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.