000 AGXX40 KNHC 200621 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 221 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS...AND WW3 GUIDANCE FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE N AND NW GULF COAST...AND SLIDING THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY EASTWARD AVER THE N GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO TRANSITION THE STATIONARY FRONT TO A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE N GULF EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING MAINLY W OF 90W MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ELSEWHERE...A DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS...AND WW3 GUIDANCE FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING THIS PATTERN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THIS AREA SUN THROUGH MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS...AND WW3 GUIDANCE FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER OUR NE WATERS WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COASTS...WITH A WARM FRONT FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THIS LOW EASTWARD TO THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE AND OUT OF OUR AREA THROUGH SUN AND DRAG A COLD FRONT SE OVER N FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE N OF THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD NEAR AND WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM S OF THE THESE FEATURES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE UNITED STATES COAST AND COLD FRONT EMERGES OVER THE ATLC. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.