000 AGXX40 KNHC 121857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED 12 UTC MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A STRONG HIGH CENTER OVER THE NRN ATLC SW TO ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED JUST INLAND THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. BROAD LOW PRES IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE IN THE FAR NRN AND EASTERN PORTIONS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE RETREATING EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BARELY SLIP S TO THE FAR NRN WATERS ON WED AND STALL. WEAK LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT LATE WED NEAR THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST...AND LIFT NEWD TO NEAR THE SW LOUISIANA COAST BY THU AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND LIFT NEWD TO ACROSS SE LOUISIANA ON THU. AGAIN HE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WIND FIELD GRADIENT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE. BEGINNING ON LATE THU NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SWD INTO THE NE GULF...THEN BUILD SSW TO THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NW GULF BY LATE SAT AND THOUGH SUN. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE WHILE LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THE END RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT TO THOSE WATERS BRINGING AN INCREASE OF NE-E WINDS TO THE NE AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND INCREASING E-SE WINDS IN THE PORTION. THE DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 10 FT IN THE NW GULF BY LATE SAT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI...AND MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF WHILE IT WEAKENS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE STRONG E-SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS THROUGH FRI. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED 12 UTC MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE 1434-1436 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED GENTLE NE-E WINDS W OF 68W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS E OF 68W. ONLY A SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE NE WINDS REMAINS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE LEE OF CUBA. BOTHER LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONCUR WITH THE OBSERVED ASCAT DATA. SEAS THROUGHOUT ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL POCKET OF 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AREA. LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA. THE FORECAST WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THE PRESENT OBSERVED ONGOING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI. THE 5-7 FT SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE FURTHER TO 3-4 FT ON WED. NE TRADES INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT NIGHT AND DIMINISH ON SUN. E-SE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BEGIN TO PULSE TO THE FRESH INTENSITY THU THROUGH SAT...BECOMING LOCALLY STRONG SAT NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MODERATE INTENSITY SUN. WED NIGHT...AND THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF USED 12 UTC MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC ANALYSIS HAS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 29N65W SW TO 28N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG A POSITION FROM 29N68W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. A RATHER ROBUST MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS HELPING TO TRIGGER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST ALONG AND E OF 65W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE 1436 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY TROUGH MAY BE FORMING JUST TO THE E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NEAR 65W. THE FIRST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO N OF THE AREA ON WED. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW ALONG THE SECOND TROUGH JUST E OF THE AREA NEAR 24N65W BY EARLY WED. MODELS ARE MORE IN CONSENSUS IN PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE. THE GENERAL FORECAST IS FOR IT TO PULL OFF TO THE NNE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE BASIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE BASIN ON WED. MODELS AGREE THAT IT SHOULD BE WEAK. WEAK LOW PRES OF 1015 MB IS FORECAST TO FORM NEAR 31N79W BY EARLY ON WED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. AS HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FROM NEAR 31N71W TO VERO BEACH THU...AND LEAVE BEHIND A N TO S TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE THE NE FLORIDA COAST THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILD S INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS TROUGH SETTING UP A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THAT IS LIKELY EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NE WINDS TO THE E OF NE FLORIDA TO THE STRONG RANGE THROUGH SUN. THE GRADEINT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED FRI THROUGH SUN AS BROAD LOW PRES NE OF THE AREA DEEPENS. RESULTANT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO RATHER HIGH VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 9-16 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS BY SUN PER MWW3/NWPS OUTPUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.