000 AGXX40 KNHC 060526 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 126 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE FAR NE GULF WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE N-CENTRAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT...REACHING OVER THE FL PENINSULA ON THU. BY THEN...A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E TO NEAR 28N93W ON THU NIGHT...THEN LOSE IDENTITY IN A RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL DEVELOP AND MEANDER FROM SW LA TO THE FL STRAITS THROUGH SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NE GULF TONIGHT. FRESH NE FLOW IS EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE AXIS ON SAT...INCREASING TO STRONG NE-E FLOW NEAR 25N86W ON SUN. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND NW WATERS STARTING SAT EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG SE FLOW FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE W GULF. EXPECT STRONG N-NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN ON SAT EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. NOW EXPECT STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE-E WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA WILL STALL ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY THROUGH THU. FRESH NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A SMALL PATCH OF STRONG NE FLOW EXPECTED BRIEFLY NEAR 20N79W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX TONIGHT AS A RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE RIDGE...EXPECT INCREASING TO MODERATE FLOW N OF THE RIDGE LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN FRESH NE FLOW EXPECTED ON SAT NIGHT AND STRONG NE FLOW EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT WITH SIMILAR STRONG WINDS FORECAST IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO E CUBA AND A REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE IS ANALYZED AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM 31N66W TO CENTRAL FL. EXPECT A SINGLE FRONT STALLING FROM 27N55W TO 22N58W TO HISPANIOLA EARLY THU...WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVING NW LATE THU...AND DISSIPATING ON FRI. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW N OF 27N E OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT N OF 31N BY THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY SPREADING S ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 65W...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE N WINDS WILL SEND A BATCH OF N SWELL...IN THE FORM OF 7-10 FT COMBINED SEAS...S ACROSS THE WATERS N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND EARLY THU BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N W OF 75W AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST ON THU. THE FRONT WILL REACH A PSN FROM 31N72W TO THE CENTRAL CUBA ON FRI...AND FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA LATE SAT NIGHT...AND STALL FROM 29N55W TO HISPANIOLA LATE SUN NIGHT. STRONG N WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS N OF THE FRONT ON SUN NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.