000 AGXX40 KNHC 261839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED TO JUST INLAND THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SW TO 28N89W TO 27N94W. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO SW OF THE FRONT FROM 25N91W TO 20N96W. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXISTENCE OF LARGE TSTM COMPLEXES OVER MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXHIBITING FREQUENT LIGHTNING SEEN IN GOES-R LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES NNE. THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING FRESH SE WINDS TO THE SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER A PORTION OF THE NE GULF TO E AND SE OF THE 1012 MB LOW TO NEAR NEAR 27N85W WHERE AN INDUCED GRADIENT BY THE LOW HAS PRODUCED SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO AT TIMES 25-30 KT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA 20-25 KT WINDS BUILD TO 6-9 FT THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SUBSIDED TO 5-6 FT. THE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW IN RELAXING THERE. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT EARLY TONIGHT AND DRIFT NW THROUGH SUN WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ASCENT DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH THROUGH MOST OF SUN. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST BY THE 12 UTC GFS MOISTURE GUIDANCE TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND SUN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL US AND A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF COAST. THIS NEW COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST DURING SUN AFTERNOON...AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY SUN EVENING. BY EARLY MON...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 26N90W AND BECOME STATIOANRY TO 24N93W TO THE SW GULF. LATE ON MON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WEAKENING AS IT EXITS THE ERN GULF AND MOVES ACROSS FL WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION DRIFTS BACK TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT. SELY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BEGINNING LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT FROM STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS S OVER THE ERN GULF PORTION AND LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A HEAT INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE PAST TWO AFTERNOONS AND HAS MOVED WNW OFF THE PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS ACCOMPANIED BY A 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS E OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. A WEAKER EVENT IS FORECAST FOR SUN EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER NRN AGAIN INDUCED ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LAST NIGHT. THIS EVENT ENDED THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN QUITE LARGE WITHIN AND JUST W OF WHERE THE GALE FORCE WINDS TOOK PLACE AS NOTED IN A RECENT OF ALTIMETER PASS THAT REVEALED A SWATH OF 1-14 FT THERE. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE PROPAGATING WELL TO THE W OF THE GALE WARNING AREA TO NEAR 82W. THESE SWELL WERE ALSO VERIFIED BY A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS...AND E OF THE EARLIER GALE FORCE WIND AREA TO 73W WHERE AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED SEAS OF 10-12 FT. A BROADER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX MON WITH ONLY STRONG NOCTURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS THROUGH AND NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON. ALSO...FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS UPCOMING WEEK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE NRN AND SRN JET STREAM BRANCHES WITH THE ADDITIONAL FACTOR OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING OUT JUST NW OF THE FORECAST WATERS IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NW WATERS AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION N OF THE BAHAMAS. ON TUE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NRN FL AND TO THE N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO SHIFT THE ACTIVE CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N41W ANCHORS A VERY BROAD RIDGE THAT SPANS THE MAJORITY OF SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS SW TO CENTRAL FL. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE SUPPORTED BY THIS RIDGE WITH POCKETS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AND ALSO BETWEEN THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVING OVER THE NW ZONES ON TUE WILL HELP TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND SE AND S PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING ON TUE NIGHT...A BROAD AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE OF THE MID-ATLC COAST AND ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY WED EVENING. THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE AN INCREASE TO ELY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL WATERS AT THAT TIME WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5-8 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.