000 AGXX40 KNHC 231703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 103 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY STILL HAVE SMALL PATCHES OF STRONG RETURN FLOW EMBEDDED IN MOSTLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE W GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E TONIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A CONVECTIVE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND SUNRISE THU...REACH A POSITION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THU EVENING... STALL FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI... THEN DRIFT W ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT LIKELY BECOMING A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL GULF ON SUN. STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST ON THU AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF ON THU NIGHT. MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF ON SUN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE WEAKER...AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON SUN NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUE AS LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING NW ACROSS MOST OF THE NW GULF WATERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT THE BOUNDARY WAS DROPPED FROM THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. THE ARRAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS MISSED THE GALE WARNING AREA ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST LAST NIGHT...BUT A LARGE AREA OF STRONG NE WINDS JUST TO THE W SUGGEST MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY OCCURRED. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED NEAR 11.5N75W TONIGHT SURROUNDED BY STRONG TO NEAR FORCE NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...STILL EXPECT STRONG NOCTURNAL NE FLOW...WITH A SMALL PATCH OF NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT STRONG NE-E FLOW IN THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES TONIGHT...AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE AGAIN ON THU AND FRI NIGHTS. STRONG E FLOW ALSO EXPECTED TO RESUME ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH EVENING...INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS...BEGINNING ON THU NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 29N55W TO 23N65W...THEN CONTINUES AS A FRONTAL TROUGH WESTWARD TO THE NE CUBAN COAST WHERE THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARE MOVING W. WILL CONTINUE LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE BROAD FRONT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TODAY. AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NE FL WITH FRESH E FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS S OF THE RIDGE...AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 23N...INCLUDING APPROACH TO CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN RESUMING AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.