000 AGXX40 KNHC 171707 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 107 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS COME INTO PLAY BY SAT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES E. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN ALL OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES TO MOVE THE LOW THROUGH THE GULF AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY BY SAT NIGHT. THE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY BLENDING THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS CAPPED THE WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AT 30 KT COMPARED TO THE GALES SEEN IN THE GFS. GALE FORCE WINDS WERE NOT FORECAST BY THE 00Z ECMWF OR THE 12Z UKMET. THE 06Z GEFS SHOWS NO CHANCE OF GALES...BUT THE LATEST SREF SHOWS UP TO A 46 PERCENT CHANCE PRIMARILY AT 18Z-00Z MON...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THE WEEKEND AS THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES BECOMES A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE FORECAST FOR THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE PREFERRED WIND FORECAST WAS ADOPTED FOR THE 12Z NWPS RUN...SO THE NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH FRI THEN A GLOBAL MODEL BLEND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 12Z GFS WAS THE BEST INITIALIZED WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS N OF HONDURAS AND THE NE-E WINDS NEAR THE CENTRAL COLOMBIAN COAST THIS MORNING. IT GENERALLY PERFORMS BETTER WITH THE TERRAIN INFLUENCED WINDS IN THESE AREAS BY SHOWING STRONGER WINDS...SO IT WAS RELIED ON MORE HEAVILY THROUGH FRI. BY THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES AS THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR HANDLING OF LOW PRES MOVING E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TAKING A COLD FRONT INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS USED TO REPRESENT THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ADJUST THE GRIDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THIS LEAD TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON AND IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT. THIS WIND FORECAST WAS ADOPTED FOR THE 12Z NWPS RUN...SO IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W WILL SHIFT NE TO 27N65W THROUGH FRI. CONFIDENCE WANES OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES NE INTO THE ATLC. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS FAST FORECAST FOR A WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MOVING E-NE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLC LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE GFS ONLY CARRIED 25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE OFFSHORES AREA AT 12Z MON. BY UKMET IS ALSO WEAKER LIKE THE GFS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SUN AND MON...BUT THE UKMET IS A WEAK OUTLIER WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM SUN. THE 00Z ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK AND STRENGTH THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. IT WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST NEAR THE COLD FRONT. IT SHOWS 30 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW SUN. THIS WIND FORECAST WAS ADOPTED FOR THE 12Z NWPS RUN...SO IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.