000 AGXX40 KNHC 280800 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE FOR WINDS...THEN USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES OF 1026 MB IS CENTERED IN THE FAR NE GULF JUST W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SHOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONSISTING OF GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE N-NE WINDS IN THE FAR SE PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT S OF 25N E OF 90W...AND ALSO SE OF A LINE FROM 24N90W TO 21N92W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE LOWER...IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FT. THE MODERATE N-NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO MON. THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM IN THE FAR NE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE WEAKENING AS LOW PRES MOVING E THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. DRAGS A COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST...AND INTO THE NW GULF LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE TUE NIGHT...FROM NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 23N98W EARLY WED...THEN FROM APALACHEE BAY TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF THU TO POSSIBLY A TROUGH WHILE THE PORTION N OF 28N MOVES E OF AREA. THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH MOVING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ALONG WITH TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS... EXCEPT IN NW PORTION S OF CUBA WHERE LIKE YESTERDAY THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WAS USED DUE TO ITS BETTER HANDLE OF SEAS THERE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW EXISTS AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM NW HAITI SW TO JAMAICA SW TO 16N81W AND TO 11N83W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE FRONT THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS AGAIN INDUCING A SWATH OF FRESH NE WINDS TO THE LEE OF CUBA BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WERE CAPTURED BY THE 0214 UTC ASCAT PASS. SEAS PRODUCED BY THESE WINDS ARE IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE. THESE SEAS ARE HANDLED BETTER BY THE ECMWF WAVES COMPARED TO THE OTHER WAVE GUIDANCE. A SMALL PATCH OF FRESH NE WINDS IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE ASCAT DATA. A SHIP THAT RECENTLY CROSSED THE PASSAGE REPORTED SIMILAR WINDS. ASCAT DATA INDICATED MAINLY MODERATE E WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THE EXCEPTION IS ELSEWHERE NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH N- NE WINDS ARE NOTED. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TODAY...THEN BECOME TONIGHT AND MON. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH ON MON...AND NE-E LIGHT TO MODERATE TUE AND WED AT WHICH TIME THE PRES GRADIENT WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLACKEN ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS AT THAT TIME ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW THERE PER WAVEWATCH AND NWPS OUTPUT...IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL PULSE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WITHIN ABOUT 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WINDS. MOSTLY MODERATE E TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 0000 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS THROUGH TUE...THEN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH TUE...THEN A GFS/ECMWF TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N65W SW TO NW HAITI AT 06Z. A TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE TROUGH. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0215 UTC INDICATED MODERATE NW-N WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH TO 75W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS W OF 75W. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE SE OF THE FRONT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE FROM NW SWELL N OF 29N BETWEEN 52W-65W. SEAS ELSEWHERE NE OF THE OF THE BAHAMAS ARE 4-6 FT. SEAS ARE 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE SE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM NEAR 25N65W TO NEAR NW HAITI AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND IT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE FAR SE WATERS AND MERGE WITH THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY ON SUN AS HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY FRESH NE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE SE PORTION SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT. THE FRESH W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE 6-8 FT SEAS MOVING NE OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WILL REACH TO NEAR 31N68W ON TUE...AND TO WELL NE OF THE AREA WED IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SLY FLOW INCREASES IN THE NW PORTION TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THU. FRESH SE WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 29N WITH SEAS MAXING NEAR 9 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.