000 AGXX40 KNHC 220726 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 226 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. AREAS OF FOG ARE NOTED OVER THE NW GULF UNDER A LIGHT SE FLOW. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS LATE TODAY...THEN STALL AND LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY WED EVENING AND SWEEP E OF THE AREA BY WED NIGHT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NW WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF W OF 94W WED. CURRENTLY...THE GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE 70 PERCENT OVER THE NW GULF/GMZO11 AND GMZ013 AND 30-50 PERCENT IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF/GMZ017 AND SW GULF/GMZ023 TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHILE THE SREF INDICATES 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE 40-45 PERCENT ACROSS THE NW GULF AND 50-55 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL Y SW GULF. AS A RESULT...GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FORECAST ZONES TUE NIGHT AND WED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY 00Z THU AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. THEN...WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE NW GULF WITH RETURN SE FLOW DEVELOPING W OF 93W FRI. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS S TO SW WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH CENTRAL WATERS WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OF 12-14 FT ACROSS THE NE GULF AND 10-12 FT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SW GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 9-11 FT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...7-9 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE. AS THE RIDGE N OF AREA SLIDES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...EXPECT A DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IN THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT... AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS ON THU. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU. TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE MOST ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE NE-E WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH INTENSITY WED THROUGH FRI. LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELL AFFECTING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES OF 1026 MB CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N52W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE AND STATIONARY FRONT JUST ESE OF THE BASIN IS RESULTING IN FRESH NE WINDS MAINLY S OF ABOUT 24N PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. AN ALTIMETER PASS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATES SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 10-12 FT ACROSS THE E AND SE WATERS DUE TO PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD NE SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW PART ON TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRIEFLY MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS...THEN STALLS AND WEAKENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH WED AS LOW PRES RAPIDLY DEEPENS NW OF THE REGION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...AND PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY LATE THU AND FROM 28N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE FRI. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N WED NIGHT INTO THU. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE JUST N OF THE AREA. STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 27N DIMINISH SOME THU NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.