000 AGXX40 KNHC 310634 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 134 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 00Z THU THEN 12Z/30 ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 00Z THU THEN 12Z/30 EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 12Z/30 ECMWF TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF WED AND THU. THIS ADDED SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z/30 ECMWF AGREE ON THE FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE NW GULF BECOMING A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AROUND 06Z TUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS NOW BECOME SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND 00Z UKMET TO CARRY THE FRONT OFFSHORE TUE MORNING...WITH THE GFS/UKMET MORE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR FORECAST. ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON CARRYING THE FRONT INTO THE SW GULF BY 18Z WED AND INCREASING THE WINDS TO 30 KT OFF VERACRUZ. THE FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT CARRIED GALE FORCE WINDS HERE AT THAT TIME...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF...THE LATEST SREF SHOWS NO CHANCE OF GALES THROUGH THE END OF ITS RUN AT 12Z WED...AND THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS NO CHANCE OF GALES. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT POSITION 00Z THU FROM APALACHICOLA TO LA BARRA MEXICO...JUST W OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AFTERWARD...THE GFS HOLDS UP THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF. THE 00Z GEFS SIDES WITH THE FASTER SOLUTIONS...SO THE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION AFTER 00Z THU. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL TIMING ARE ATTRIBUTABLE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF THU. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REINFORCING COLD AIR THAN THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET...BUT IT IS NOT AS SLOW AS THE GEFS MEAN. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE GFS SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THIS COLD PUSH ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AT 00Z FRI AND HAS WIDESPREAD 30 KT WINDS JUST W OF THE FRONT AND AS FAR N AS 27N. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY LESS BULLISH...BUT STILL HAS A SIZABLE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS AT THAT TIME. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE YET ON THE FORECAST...SO BLENDED THE ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WAS BASED ON THE GFS AND ADJUSTED THE WINDS TO DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 00Z THU THEN 12Z/30 ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 00Z THU THEN 12Z/30 EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM...NOW SHOWING MAXIMUM WINDS TO 30 KT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE 00Z UKMET AGREES. THE WINDS WERE MATCHED TO THE GFS IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS NEED TO BE BUMPED UP HERE. THE NWPS IS RUNNING HIGHER THAN THE MWW3 IN THIS AREA...SO IT WAS PRIMARILY USED TO BUMP UP THE SEAS TO MATCH THE WINDS. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...THE MWW3 AND NWPS BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL SUN THROUGH WED OVER SE WATERS. GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WEAK WITH THE TRADE WINDS E OF THE AREA COMPARED TO SCATTEROMETER DATA...WILL ADJUST SEAS TOWARD THE MWW3/NWPS HERE. BY WED...THE MODELS AGREE ON CARRYING AN INVERTED TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST N OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIALLY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDS INTO THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/30 ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HERE. A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED LATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGHER THAN AVERAGE. THE GFS IS SLOWER TO CARRY THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT COMPARED TO THE 12Z/30 ECMWF. A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS GFS-BASED FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST. SEE THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION FOR DETAILS. SEE THE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TUE TROUGH THU NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 00Z THU THEN 12Z/30 ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 00Z THU THEN 12Z/30 EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW 8 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. BY TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE OVER W WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS NEAR 72W ABUTS LOWER PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER SE WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH N OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD LINGER JUST E OF THE AREA THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD THU WHILE THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF IF FORECAST BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/30 ECMWF TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THU...WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA NEAR THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE ATLC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED JUST N OF THE AREA. THE MODELS GENERALLY UNDER FORECAST THE WINDS/SEAS FUNNELING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN NE FLOW. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY TO THE GRIDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.