000 AGXX40 KNHC 210829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 329 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT E INTO SW N ATLC WITH RETURN FLOW NOW OCCURRING ACROSS ALL BUT SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOW ELY WINDS 15-20 KT STILL OCCURRING WITHIN STRAITS OF FL...WHILE OBS AND SCAT DATA SUGGEST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN... ALTHOUGH A FEW PLATFORMS INVOF MOUTH OF MS RIVER HAVE INDICATED WINDS 20-25 KT AND OBS THERE SHOWING SEAS 4-5 FT...SO 20 KT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TODAY IN ADVANCE OF WELL ADVERTISED LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH TEXAS COAST SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE BASIN AND INTO NW CARIB AND ACROSS MUCH OF STRAITS OF FL BY 00Z. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND ALIGNMENT OF LOW AND FRONT...ALTHOUGH ECMWF STILL A BIT SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER W WITH FRONT. HAVE THUS NUDGED POSITIONS SLIGHTLY SLOWER OR W OF GFS OUT OF RESPECT FOR ECMWF. RETURN FLOW TO FRESHEN BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING TO TEXAS COAST AT 18Z AND REMAINING AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT ENTERS ATLC FRI. VERY UNSTABLE BL BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED TO ALLOW MIXING AND WILL START GALES IN NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT AT 00Z FRI AND THEN ACROSS VERACRUZ AREA BY 12Z FRI. AS FRONT EXITS THE BASIN TO THE E AND SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW TO W GALES SUGGESTED TO CONTINUE N CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z SAT BEFORE ENDING. THERE HAD BEEN A RATHER LARGE INTERPRETATION OF WAVE FIELD BETWEEN WW3 AND ECWAVE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH WW3 SEEMING TO DRIVE MORE WAVE ENERGY SE TOWARDS THE YUCATAN...AND ECWAVE BUILDING SWELL WITH W TO NW WIND FIELD AND INTO E CENTRAL PORTIONS. BOTH MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAX SEAS DEVELOPING E CENTRAL PORTIONS AND SHIFTING EWD. ECWAVE STILL HIGHER AND MAXING AT 18 FT OFFSHORE OF W CENTRAL FL 12Z SAT WHILE WW3 ONLY 15 FT AT THAT TIME BUT IN VERY SIMILAR LOCATION. GWES ENSEMBLE MAX SHOWS 18-19 FT 21Z FRI THROUGH 12Z SAT WHILE UKMET PEAKS AT 18-19 FT 12Z SAT. THIS WIND DRIVEN SWELL WILL LAST THROUGH 1-2 COMPLETE TIDE CYCLES AND THUS PRESENT MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION ISSUES FOR W COASTAL FLORIDA AS WELL THE THE KEYS AND NW CUBA. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE W TO E SAT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SE RETURN FLOW FROM VERACRUZ AREA NWD STARTING SUN AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE WSW TO ABOUT 18N87W AND DRIFTING W TO WNW ATTM. RECENT RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED BOUNDARY ACROSS NW PORTIONS...AND STILL INDICATING STRONG NE WINDS IN LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA N OF FRONT...AND ALSO SPILLING THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS STILL 6-8 FT IN THESE AREAS. 42056 HAS DROPPED FROM 8 TO 7 FT IN PAST FEW HOURS AND SUGGESTS MODELS 1-2 FT LOW ACROSS LARGE AREA OF NW CARIB. ELSEWHERE SE OF BOUNDARY...VERY STABLE E TO NE BL FLOW PREVAILS WITH WINDS AND SEAS MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL SW PORTIONS TO COSTA RICA AND WRN PANAMA COASTS...WHILE 02Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOLID 30 KT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT W TO ENTER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS S OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY EARLY THU MORNING. AS THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT S AND THEN SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE S OF OLD BOUNDARY ACROSS COLOMBIAN BASIN AND A NOCTURNAL MAX OF 30 KT IS EXPECTED AGAIN FRI NIGHT. NEXT GULFMEX COLD FRONT WILL ENTER YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN FRI EVENING-NIGHT...WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF IT....AND MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE W BASIN SATMODELS SUGGEST WINDS 25-30 KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WATERS OF NE HONDURAS AND ERN NICARAGUA AS FRONT SWEEPS PAST AREA...AND THEN REASONABLE CHANCE FOR NLY GALES OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRETCHING FROM E CUBA TO NEAR NICARAGUA- COSTA RICA BORDER BY 00Z SUN. SEAS TO BUILD 8-10 FT NW PORTIONS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT TO 12 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND TO 8-11 FT SW WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN E OF NICARAGUA. NWLY SWELL NOW BEGINNING TO INVADE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH BUOY OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW MODELS LOW WITH THIS SWELL. ECWAVE SEEMS CLOSEST TO BUOYS N OF NE CARIB ATTM...WHERE 41043 AT 7 FT AND 41044 IS 10 FT. THIS SWELL TO DOMINATE THE REGION NEXT 48 HOURS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN N OF HISPANIOLA AND MONA PASSAGE AND BEGINNING TO DRIFT WWD. HIGH HAS SHIFTED OFF OF THE GA COAST AND FORCING WINDS ACROSS BAHAMAS AND S PORTIONS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY VEER. WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY BEFORE GULFMEX LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH AREA TONIGHT. HIGH WILL OPEN UP INTO SE U.S. AHEAD OF LOW WITH SE TO S WINDS 20-25 KT FL COASTAL WATERS BY SUNRISE FRI INCREASING TO GALES N OF 28N W OF 77W BY 18Z AND N OF 26N BY 00Z. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH-SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE OFF THE PENINSULA AHEAD OF TRUE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR SLY FLOW TO 40 KT E OF IT AND N OF 27-28N. W TO WSW GALES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT N OF 27N AND THEN COULD SPREAD A BIT FARTHER S TO N OF 26N BY SAT MORNING. MODELS SUGGESTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SECONDARY LOW SPIRALING CYCLONICALLY AROUND WRN SEMICIRCLE OF PARENT LOW ON SUNDAY AND COULD RAKE THE MID ATLC COASTAL WITH STRONG GALES AND SPREAD S AND SE BACK INTO N WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT OF AREA. COLD FRONT TO REACH WINDWARD PASSAGE BY AROUND 12Z SUN AND MONA PASSAGE BY 12Z MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.