000 AGXX40 KNHC 191938 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL AND LATEST GFS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SE PART AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA YIELDING N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN MODESTLY ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING ENE BY WED MORNING...MAINTAINING SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT...EXCEPT IN THE SE BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI AFTERNOON THEN MOVING E OF THE AREA EARLY SAT. FRESH TO STRONG SLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE NE BASIN THU TO FRI WHILE STRONG NW WINDS 25-30 KT WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF VERACRUZ FRI. HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE NE QUARTER OF GULF EARLY SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL AND LATEST GFS. A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS. RECENT SCAT PASS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW NLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EXTENDING E TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DETACH FROM THE MAIN FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL REACH HISPANIOLA TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC. A RIDGE BUILDING N BEHIND FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING ACROSS THE NW BASIN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS...PEAKING AT 8 FT. THIS TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO ENHANCE WINDS OFF OF COLOMBIA AND ALLOW FOR NOCTURNAL MAX TO AROUND 30 KT THROUGH EARLY SAT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO EASTERN HONDURAS SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS TO PREVAIL ACROSS E CARIB AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NWLY SWELL IMPACTING N PORTIONS OF THESE ATLC WATERS THU THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL AND LATEST GFS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO COASTAL WATERS OF E CUBA WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ENTERING NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SCAT PASSES SHOW W TO NW FRESH TO STRONG FLOW N OF 27N W OF THE LEADING FRONT. A SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER NE IOWA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS IN THE SW N ATLC. AS THE HIGH MOVES E-SE WHILE INTENSIFYING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE YIELDING N TO NE WINDS ACROSS BAHAMAS...STRAITS OF FL AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SECOND FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE FIRST FRONT...PUSHING IT FROM 30N46W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WED MORNING BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA EARLY THU. SEAS DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 18 FT. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO W WATERS LATE FRI AND STRETCH FROM 31N73W TO 22N77W AND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA SAT MORNING. MODELS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SLY GALE WARNINGS AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS NW WATERS LATE FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.