000 AGXX40 KNHC 011835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO 24N95W THEN SOUTHWARD TO 18N94W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 01/ 1536 UTC SHOWED STRONG TO NEAR GALE N TO NE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE NW TO N WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT. WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 02/0000 UTC ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS...WITH THE GALE WARNING AREA SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF SAT AND SAT NIGHT. MAXIMUM SEAS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST FORECAST WINDS OF 40 KT WILL RANGE 12 TO 15 FT. BY SUNDAY AS THE WIND FIELD DIMINISHES...SEAS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FT BY SUN NIGHT LATE...AND BELOW 8 FT BY MON ACROSS THE SW GULF. BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL PUSH THE FRONT SE OF THE BASIN MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. EARLIER OVERNIGHT AND MORNING SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH STRONG TRADES COVERING A LARGE AREA OF THE BASIN FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 81W. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOWER PRES ANCHORED ACROSS NW COLOMBIA REMAINS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THIS AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUFFICIENTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW WINDS TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER SAT AND SUN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DISPLACING THE SW NORTH ATLC SUBTROPICAL HIGH FARTHER EAST. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 7-8 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SUN. THE BROAD OVERALL TROUGHING IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF 1028 MB ANCHORED NEAR 28N38W EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM THE HIGH TO FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W AND PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS N OF 24N AND MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS S OF 24N...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NOTED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NW WATERS CONTINUES TO DROP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SAT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. THEREAFTER THE LOW WILL BEGIN LIFTING TO THE NE MON WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA BY EARLY TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.