000 AGXX40 KNHC 311812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 112 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT AND 2-4 FT E OF THE FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN WATERS THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO THE SW GULF SATURDAY...THEN LINGERING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE FRONT SE OF THE AREA MONDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...8-11 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 8-9 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL RETREAT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GALES OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL COME DOWN EARLY FRIDAY. BROAD TROUGHING IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...4-6 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY FRI. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART REMAINS STATIONARY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM N OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT BY EARLY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING FRI INTO SAT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO FRI. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.