000 AGXX40 KNHC 281911 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 211 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. OBSERVATIONS FROM SACRIFICE ISLAND OFF VERACRUZ MEXICO INDICATES SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ONGOING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING INTO THE SW GULF. FARTHER NORTH...ELEVATED PLATFORMS ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALE FORCE. MUCH OF THIS IS LIKELY MIXING TO THE SURFACE IN FORM OF FREQUENT GUSTS OVER THE NW GULF AND W CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONT IS RAPIDLY LOSING STRENGTH HOWEVER AS ITS SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. THE FOLLOW ON AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY...RELEGATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT AS IT DRIVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT STALLS FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO BY EARLY TUE...THEN REVERSES COURSE AS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM MOBILE BAY TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO BY EARLY THU. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF ENSEMBLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER PATTEN BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY FRI AHEAD OF A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE W CENTRAL AND SW GULF AGAIN AS THE FRONT SAGS SE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND A STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND WINDS AND NEAR GALE WARNING FORCE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA. THE RIDGE WEAKENS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT WILL BUILD AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT STALLS AND RETROGRADES. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF COLOMBIA BY TUE NIGHT. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OVER 13 FT IN THE AREA OFF NE COLOMBIA. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE STRONG SE WINDS OFF YUCATAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS IS ALREADY DIMINISHING AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE SAT AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF. STRONG NE WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG WITH THE FRONT BY SAT NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/NWPS GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG ROUGHLY 29N/30N INTO NE FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...TURKS AND CAICOS AND NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE MAINLY AT NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST LATE TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THU NIGHT. GLOBAL ARE IN LINE SHOWING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF NE FLORIDA. THE WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT SLOWS...REACHING FROM 31N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE SAT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER ON THIS POSITION...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NOTED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.