000 AGXX40 KNHC 260711 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 211 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE 00Z GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUN AND EARLY MON. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS TO MOVE THE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES OVER THE GULF WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL. THE 24 HOUR TREND IN THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION...SO THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS SEEMS ACCEPTABLE TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. THE UKMET AND ECMWF NO LONGER SHOW GALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW GALES IN THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AT 06Z MON ONCE THE COLD AIR MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE PERIOD FROM 00Z MON THROUGH 12Z MON. ISC GRIDS REVEAL GALES EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL FORECAST AREA BY THE FORECAST OFFICES AT THIS TIME. THE SUPPORTING ENERGY FOR THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UKMET DOES NOT SHOW GALES IN THE SW GULF...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BRIEF MINIMAL GALE AT 12Z MON. THE LATEST SREF FORECAST ONLY SHOWS THE SW GULF GALE. PROBABILITIES ARE OVER 30 PERCENT FOR A GALE HERE FROM 15Z MON UNTIL 00Z TUE. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS HERE TOWARD THE SREF GALE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE GFS LOOKS REASONABLE. A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE S INTO THE NW GULF EARLY WED. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE UKMET LIES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...BUT SIDES MORE WITH THE FASTER GFS. THE GFS STILL SEEMS LIKE THE BEST SOLUTION OVERALL FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN ATLC AND A STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MON. GALE WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEVERAL MORE DAYS N OF COLOMBIA. THE USUALLY STRONGER GFS IS GENERALLY RELIABLE IN SUCH PATTERNS. IT SHOWS GALES CONTINUING TO PULSE OFF NE COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN REMAIN 25-30 KT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES LESS INTENSE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY MON WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND SHOVES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AWAY FROM THE REGION...LESSENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS IS RUNNING SLIGHTLY WEAK HERE COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BUMPED UP TO BETTER FIT THE OBSERVATIONS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR NEAR BERMUDA AT 33N63W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW THROUGH 31N72W TO THE FL/GA LINE. THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH SUN. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD MON AND TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH MON BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH S-SE WINDS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE ATLC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PRIMARILY IN THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH SUN EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE ATLC SHIFTS E. THE GFS FORECAST APPEARS REASONABLE OVERALL. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.