000 AGXX40 KNHC 231845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE ALONG 33N INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 97W- 98W FROM TEXAS INTO NE MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...AND MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 89W-93W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL WEAKEN AND STALL ONCE IT REACHES THE TEXAS COAST WED. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THU AND FRI. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SUN...EXTEND FROM TX/LA BORDER TO TAMPICO MEXICO SUN NIGHT AND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO VERACRUZ MEXICO MON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INDICATED FROM MODEL FORECASTS...WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER EL PASO SUN MORNING INDUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE S WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT AND MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N76W IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. ASCAT DATA AT 1430 UTC SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS FROM 11N-17N IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MON. GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEVERAL MORE DAYS N OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN REMAIN 25-30 KT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES LESS INTENSE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GFS MODEL ALSO SHOWS BRIEF PULSES OF 33-35 KT MINIMAL GALES IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA MAINLY IN THE EVENING BETWEEN 21Z- 03Z. HIS ROUGHLY COINCIDES WITH LOWEST WINDS N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN SOUTHERN WATERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE 8-10 FT RANGE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS...6-8 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND 2-4 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STATIONARY HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR 32N60W THU THROUGH SAT. THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT FRESH-STRONG TRADE WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.